finance
Every weekday, host Kai Ryssdal helps you make sense of the day's business and economic news — no econ degree or finance background required. "Marketplace" takes you beyond the numbers, bringing you context. Our team of reporters all over the world speak with CEOs, policymakers and regular people just trying to get by.
Stacy Vanek Smith suggests that tariffs have become like 'economic wallpaper,' having an impact but no longer commanding significant attention. She notes that in 2025, tariffs cost households an estimated $1,000, a figure expected to increase, contributing to consumer difficulties with inflation and stagnant wages.
Courtney Brown argues that despite potential distractions like the Middle East conflict, the President is committed to his tariff agenda, having chosen to 'double down' rather than backtrack. She highlights that this decision signals a seriousness about the trade agenda, contrary to some predictions.
Stacy Vanek Smith reports that oil prices have risen back to around $90 a barrel, attributed to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This price increase is seen as negative for both consumers and businesses, exacerbating existing concerns about inflation and rising costs.
Courtney Brown observes a confounding trend where the economy shows strong indicator-based performance, such as the lowest jobless claims in decades, but consumer sentiment remains very low. She questions the economic impact of this consumer dissatisfaction, suggesting a potential pullback in spending.
Stacy Vanek Smith expresses surprise that consumers continue to spend robustly despite real wages not keeping pace with inflation and rising consumer debt. She questions how long this trend can be sustained, given the increasing borrowing costs.
Courtney Brown poses a question for Fed Chair Kevin Walsh regarding how rising borrowing costs might affect the Federal Reserve's outlook. She speculates if these market-driven increases in yields might mean the Fed doesn't need to be as aggressive with future rate hikes.
Stacy Vanek Smith asks Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh how he plans to navigate a difficult economic environment. She points out the dilemma of potentially not raising rates due to an anemic job market and high borrowing costs, while cutting rates seems risky with inflation potentially rising.
The podcast discusses rising bond yields, attributing them to persistent inflation and the government's increasing debt. This trend is noted to be impacting borrowing costs across the economy, with 30-year mortgage rates reaching their highest in almost a year.
Chris Duncan of LaSalle State Bank notes that interest on business loans hasn't changed much recently as the Fed held rates steady, but anticipates increases. Factors like rising deposit costs for banks and higher energy prices affecting borrowers in industries like timber and trucking could lead to more expensive business loans.
Intel reported a 25% increase in sales last quarter, its largest in over 15 years, largely due to surging demand for its CPU chips driven by AI. This turnaround is significant as American taxpayers, through the Trump administration's CHIPS Act grants, own nearly 10% of the company, now valued at approximately $40 billion.
Chris Miller attributes Intel's comeback primarily to the surge in demand for its CPU chips driven by AI, which has boosted revenues and stock price. Analyst Angelo Zino notes that government support, including the CHIPS Act, has helped Intel expand manufacturing capacity, influencing other investments and potentially positioning companies like Nvidia favorably with the US government.
Jay Goldberg of C-Pour Research Partners reports that the Trump administration worked behind the scenes to encourage big tech companies to partner with Intel. This encouragement led customers to find value in Intel's offerings, resulting in increased sales in the short term, though Goldberg expresses doubts about the long-term policy implications.
Monica Petrucci of Forbes notes that functional beverages, offering health benefits or nutritional value, are becoming widespread, moving beyond niche markets to places like Starbucks and Walmart. This trend is partly driven by younger consumers like Gen Z and millennials drinking less alcohol and seeking benefits like hydration or better digestion.
The podcast discusses the expectation of rising consumer and business loan rates, even as the Federal Reserve has held its rates steady. This is attributed to factors like persistent inflation and banks potentially needing to pay more interest to depositors, which would translate to higher loan rates for customers.
Douglas De Stefano discusses a trend of people seeking career changes post-pandemic, looking for better work-life balance, improved pay, and more meaningful work. He shares his own experience transitioning from big tech to a conservation business after being laid off, highlighting the appeal of this new career path.
While US inflation has shown a slight cooling, with producer prices falling month-to-month in June, the nation's inflation rate remains the highest among G7 countries. Bethashore of Marketplace reports that the US is experiencing 3.5% inflation compared to 2.5% in Germany and 1.5% in Japan.
US economic growth is partly fueled by significant capital expenditure in artificial intelligence, with an estimated $800 billion spent this year. Steven Juno, a senior US economist at BVA, suggests this spending is driving up prices for certain consumer products like computers and GPUs, and also boosting the stock market, leading to increased consumer spending.
Farmers are experiencing increased costs for fertilizer due to global supply shocks, exacerbated by geopolitical events like the conflict in Iran. Lorena Overman, a farmer with 40 years of experience, notes that fertilizer prices are a new, significant variable impacting farm budgets. Veronica Nye of the Fertilizer Institute explains that disruptions in regions where key fertilizer resources are located have a global impact.
Student loan borrowers are experiencing significant confusion and anxiety due to frequent changes in repayment plans and policies, including the Biden-era SAVE plan. Betsy Mayo, head of the Institute of Student Loan Advisors, describes the past five years as the most chaotic in student loan policy history, leading to borrower unease and potential impact on loan repayment.
Companies are reallocating significant capital towards AI, leading to reduced spending on software and an increased demand for chips. Peter Cohen, a management practice professor at Babson College, notes that while the payoff of AI investment is uncertain, the trend is continuing. Michael Smith, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University, highlights that this surge in demand for chips is driving up prices.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh indicated a potential shift in monetary policy, emphasizing a need for 'regime change' and 'new consideration of practices' to address persistent inflation. He stated the Fed plans to eliminate the 'tax' of 63 months of inflation above target and is 'just getting started' with this initiative, which will involve five task forces.
The US consumer price index unexpectedly fell in June, with year-over-year inflation decreasing from 4.2% to 3.5%. The core inflation rate also declined to 2.6%, offering some relief though still elevated, and potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rate policy.
Gorky Chowdhury of BlackRock noted that inflation is decelerating across both goods and services. He specifically highlighted the services sector, where prices could have spiked due to events like the World Cup, but have not generated a significant inflationary impulse.
Richard Di Chizelle of Investment Firm William Blair cautioned that recent inflation data does not provide an 'all clear' signal, suggesting a rate increase in September is still possible. He cited elevated consumer expectations of inflation as a key concern for the Federal Reserve.
While beef demand surges, the pork industry is experiencing stable retail prices due to strong supply, including a record number of pigs per litter. However, demand is described as 'so-so,' with younger generations viewing pork more as an ingredient than a centerpiece, prompting industry marketing efforts.
A recent settlement involves allegations that traders manipulated prices on the 'egg clearing house,' known as the 'Wall Street of eggs,' to artificially inflate benchmark prices. This manipulation, though on a relatively small market segment, allegedly influenced consumer prices, exposing potential vulnerabilities in market oversight.
Some consumers, like Katrina Lyndon, are prioritizing spending on experiences such as music festivals and travel, using credit cards to finance these purchases while carrying a balance. This trend suggests a shift away from saving for homeownership, deemed out of reach, towards immediate gratification.
Industry consultant Maryl J. Reynolds highlighted that credit card delinquencies are a key indicator to watch for potential economic trouble. He advised that credit card debt should ideally not exceed 30% of available credit to avoid negatively impacting credit scores and future borrowing costs.
The Humphrey-Hawkins Act of 1978 formally established the Federal Reserve's 'dual mandate' of maintaining stable prices and maximum employment, a response to the stagflation of the 1970s. While originally intended to include a federal job guarantee, the final bill was watered down but retained the Fed's reporting requirement to Congress.
Inflation, particularly at the gas pump, remains a primary concern for consumers, despite some temporary price decreases. Experts like Mark Finley warn that year-on-year inflation and the psychological impact of rising prices can fuel consumer anxiety and potentially lead to unsustainable inflation expectations if conflicts continue.
Christina Beaumeister of Notre Dame argues that the Federal Reserve should proactively raise interest rates to anchor inflation expectations. She suggests that indecision regarding geopolitical conflicts risks a feedback loop where wage and price increases become persistently embedded, making monetary policy less effective.
PepsiCo reported a 6% increase in net revenue, but noted weaker sales in the US, particularly for impulse buys at convenience stores and gas stations. This is attributed to consumers tightening their spending in response to rising prices, a phenomenon linked to 'mental accounting' where increased gas expenses reduce willingness to spend on other items.
Felipe Flori, a City Bank analyst, observes that consumers at lower income levels are struggling significantly with price increases, leading to resistance in purchasing discretionary items like snacks and drinks. In contrast, consumers at higher income levels are faring better. Flori anticipates that consumers will eventually adjust to economic shocks and revert to previous spending habits.
A growing number of women are leaving lucrative but demanding careers in finance for content creation on social media and podcasts. Gabrielle Ying notes that while finance remains highly sought after, women face a "glass ceiling" and increasing job insecurity, prompting them to leverage their expertise to reach wider audiences and monetize their knowledge independently.
The federal government faces increasing difficulty managing wild horse populations on public lands, with costs for feeding and care of rounded-up horses rising. Rob Godby of the University of Wyoming estimates each wild horse in captivity costs taxpayers approximately $4 per day. Proposed solutions like selling horses for slaughter or increasing adoption efforts face legal and practical challenges.
Divorce rates have doubled for individuals over 50 and tripled for those over 65, presenting complex financial and property division challenges. Emily Stewart reports that for older couples, untangling lifetime assets such as multiple homes and retirement accounts is significantly more complex than for younger couples.
Former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke has been named co-chair of several task forces announced in his first press conference. The groups will comprise academic economists, former central bank leaders, and business leaders, notably including former Walmart CEO Doug McMilan and venture capitalist Mark Andreessen.
Economist Robin Brooks stated that escalating tensions with Iran, including potential "hot war" scenarios and rocket attacks on oil tankers, could push oil prices back towards $125 per barrel. He suggested that current market pricing may not fully account for these geopolitical risks.
Economist Robin Brooks indicated that rising oil prices will likely lead to higher prices at the pump in the US, impacting consumer spending and potentially fueling resentment over affordability. He suggested that this economic pressure might lead to renewed efforts to negotiate a peace deal with Iran.
Retailers are preparing for the holiday season by ordering inventory in advance due to concerns about rising containerized freight rates and potential new tariffs. Kristen Schwab reported that business owners are feeling more certain than a year ago but are still cautious, leading to increased advance purchasing.
Aaron Calvobachi, owner of CB Stuffer, reported a 40% spike in demand for nonpareils, attributing it to social media trends. However, she is also facing inflation in key ingredients like peanuts and increased shipping costs, leading her to order ahead to manage expenses.
Ashley Sims, owner of the jewelry brand Human's Before Handles, noted a decrease in online sales but strong performance at in-person events. She is focusing on back-to-school pop-up shops and maintaining an "everything under $50" motto as consumers become more budget-conscious.
Discussion of the Federal Reserve's minutes revealed that some members of the committee had considered raising interest rates prior to the decision to hold. Host Kai Ryssdal noted that the minutes indicated a less hawkish stance than initially perceived.
Samsung reported a staggering 1800% year-over-year profit increase for its second quarter, with sales more than doubling expectations. However, the company's shares fell nearly 7% in Seoul. This market reaction is attributed to extremely high investor expectations and a lack of new buyers, according to analysts.
Analysts predict S&P 500 companies will see another quarter of over 20% earnings growth, primarily driven by the technology sector, particularly semiconductors and memory chip manufacturers. Despite concerns about trade issues, rising oil prices, and potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, corporate earnings continue to surprise investors.
As the baby boomer generation retires, an estimated 6 million small and medium-sized businesses are expected to change hands or close in the next decade. This demographic shift could lead to an oversupply of businesses for sale, potentially forcing viable companies to shut down if buyers are not found.
A new model of 'drive-through healthcare' is emerging, characterized by quick, transactional interactions, often online or at urgent care centers, contrasting with traditional long-term patient-physician relationships. This shift is driven by inefficiencies in the healthcare system, long wait times for primary care physicians, and a consumer desire for more immediate access and agency in their healthcare decisions.
Amazon has announced a new bond offering totaling $25 billion to increase its capital for further investment in artificial intelligence. This move comes as companies across various sectors are heavily investing in AI to drive productivity and profits.
A small business owner, Andy Lang Hartman of Wild Lily, a stationery and gift store, is experiencing a significant increase in sales, particularly around the July 4th holiday. The primary challenge is managing inventory reorder points due to the unexpectedly fast sales rate, while utility costs are also noted as a rising expense due to a hot summer.
Major retailers like Target, Walmart, and Amazon are initiating back-to-school sales earlier in the year than usual. This trend, according to a PwC report, suggests families are expected to spend $922 on supplies, with 47% planning to spend more than last year.
Marketing professor Kristen Deal notes a shift in sales patterns, with promotions starting earlier each year, a trend that began during the pandemic due to supply chain issues. Brittany Steiger, a retail analyst, adds that tariffs also encouraged early shopping to avoid price increases, leading to an 'always-on' shopping mentality fueled by ongoing inflation.
Christina Durante, a marketing professor, states that inflation, at its highest level in three years, is causing significant anxiety for shoppers. This uncertainty can lead to either strict budgeting and saving or impulse purchases as a coping mechanism.
The tech market is seeing a resurgence in interest for AI stocks following a long weekend.
The Vantagedge score, used by numerous financial institutions, has been updated to version 4.0 and is now accepted by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for conforming mortgages. This is projected to enable approximately 2.7 million new mortgages and up to $1 trillion in new loans.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh identified artificial intelligence, persistent inflation, geopolitical issues, and the labor market as significant risks facing economies. Speaking in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh stated that this is a time of "greatest consequence to each of our economies" in their lifetime, though he declined to make a broad comment on systemic risks.
The concept of the "Fed put," where the Federal Reserve intervenes to stabilize markets during downturns, has evolved through various Fed chairs, including Greenspan, Bernanke, and Powell. According to analysts, the key question for the current Fed chair, Warsh, is what market conditions would be considered severe enough to warrant such intervention.
The unemployment rate for young job seekers (16-19 year olds) has risen significantly, while overall teen participation in the workforce has decreased over decades. In the 1980s, two-thirds of teenagers had summer jobs, compared to one-third today.
Experts suggest that a rise in teens pursuing college, with more competing priorities like extracurriculars and college prep, is a primary reason for lower workforce participation. For lower-income teens, a decline in federal job programs and a general decrease in employer demand for young workers also play a role.
Some employers express concerns about hiring young people, citing issues like insurance, perceptions of being on their phones, or unreliability. Additionally, the rise of staffing agencies and a preference for older workers mean that teens are often overlooked for even entry-level or seasonal positions.
The reduction in opportunities for teenagers to gain work experience can negatively affect their development of responsibility and future earning potential. Manny Rodriguez of Revolution Workshop notes that this decline makes it harder to teach essential work habits like punctuality and communication.
The Census Bureau reported a year-on-year decrease in overall construction spending for May. Spending on single-family home construction specifically dropped by 4% compared to May of the previous year, attributed to elevated mortgage rates and high price-to-income ratios.
In contrast to the national trend, the Kansas City metropolitan area is experiencing an increase in home building permits year over year. Homes priced under $500,000 are selling quickly in the region, driven by strong demand and available land.
Despite population growth in Richmond, Virginia, new home sales are reportedly lagging. This slowdown is attributed to an "affordability ceiling" and a scarcity of available land, which has not been seen in decades.
Builders in the Twin Cities are experiencing an uptick in activity following a slow spring season. However, they continue to face challenges with high land and construction costs, as well as zoning regulations, compounded by overall economic uncertainty.
The Conference Board's June Consumer Confidence Survey reveals a confusing economic outlook. While overall sentiment improved slightly, consumers are less hopeful about the job market and personal finances, despite optimism about inflation. Michael Green of Simplify Asset Management notes these mixed signals stem from the economy itself.
Recent job data indicates that while inflation rises, wage growth is steadily slowing, particularly for women. According to an analysis by the Institute for Women's Policy Research, men's earnings grew 3.7% in 2024, while women's grew only 1.5%. Experts like Yana Rogers and Courtney Shubert attribute this to shifts in job growth and disproportionate caregiving responsibilities for women.
Nicole Panitteri, owner of The Brass Owl children's shop in New York City, has closed her business after 12 years. She cited inflation, tariff pressures, and the proximity of a big-box store as key reasons for the closure, which occurred in May 2026. Panitteri mentioned a significant financial hole and the need for commercial lease assistance and a vacancy tax for local businesses.
The United States is set to expand its natural gas pipeline infrastructure to meet growing demand from Europe, Asia, and domestic data centers. Jamestown Klain of Natural Gas Intelligence highlights the crucial role of pipelines in supporting natural gas production growth. Matthew Petic of S&P Global Energy notes that while data centers are often near production sites, exported natural gas requires longer pipeline routes.
Three of the nation's largest egg producers, Cal-Maine Foods, Versova, and Hickman's Egg Ranch, have agreed to a $3.3 million settlement with the Department of Justice and 17 state attorneys general over accusations of price manipulation. A federal judge must still approve the proposed settlement, which addresses the great egg price spike that occurred a few years ago.
The Supreme Court has ruled that presidents can directly control "independent" agencies, a decision that Lea Littman, a law professor at the University of Michigan, calls "ridiculous." However, the Federal Reserve has been exempted from this ruling due to its perceived economic importance.
The US labor market has seen an increase in job creation over the past few months, with sectors like healthcare, local government, social assistance, and leisure/hospitality showing growth. However, professional industries such as banking, insurance, and tech remain stagnant or are shedding jobs.
The cost of shipping a container across the Pacific has nearly doubled in the last four months, largely due to rising fuel prices following the start of military conflict in the Middle East. Importers are also front-loading demand due to concerns about potential tariff increases and overall price hikes from carriers.
Professor Lea Brooks of George Washington University discusses the difficulty in accurately measuring the true cost of infrastructure projects. She notes that initial bids are often lower than final costs due to markups, externalities, and lengthy complaint processes, making precise cost assessment challenging.
Rocket Lab is acquiring Iridium's satellite network for $8 billion to enhance its competitiveness against SpaceX. This move is part of Rocket Lab's strategy to expand its capabilities in the satellite telecommunications sector.
Comcast announced its intention to spin off its media subsidiary, NBC Universal, into a distinct publicly traded company. This move aims to streamline operations and focus on core businesses, with the new entity including TV, film, theme parks, and the Peacock streaming service.