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Every weekday, host Kai Ryssdal helps you make sense of the day's business and economic news — no econ degree or finance background required. "Marketplace" takes you beyond the numbers, bringing you context. Our team of reporters all over the world speak with CEOs, policymakers and regular people just trying to get by.
Economist Courtney Schubert notes that strong third-quarter GDP reflects healthy consumer and business spending. Matthew Martin of Oxford Economics states that weak hiring paired with high output points to strong worker productivity, though wage growth lags behind inflation due to low labor market churn.
Marketplace's Samantha Fields reports on the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, noting that while millions quit their jobs in September, overall hiring remains sluggish. Analysts Heidi Shierholz and Elizabeth Pancotti warn that finding a job remains difficult, with healthcare hiring cooling down significantly.
Supply chain experts Zach Rogers and Nada Sanders report that businesses delayed holiday inventory orders due to tariff concerns and economic uncertainty. This last-minute rush has caused warehouse space and storage prices to experience their highest growth rate since 2022.
New York Times reporter Jenny Gross discusses the massive scale of the pet food industry, highlighting facilities like Mars' pet center in France where hundreds of cats and dogs participate in daily taste tests. Driven by demographic shifts toward later parenthood, companies are investing heavily in high-end foods and senior-cat supplements.
MLB executive Morgan Sword explains the league's proposal to implement both a payroll floor and a salary cap to regulate competitive balance, a move strongly opposed by the players union. Economists note that early-career players face strict team control and low pay before reaching a free market.
Kate Davidson and Greg Ip discuss the Federal Reserve's announcement to reduce the number of interest rate decisions next year to six. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh aims to give officials more time for strategic discussions and align better with economic data releases, though markets reacted with concern over potential delays in responding to economic shifts.
Greg Ip breaks down the latest U.S. GDP report, noting a strong 3.4% annual growth rate for the quarter, with demand measures growing around 5%. However, he points out that growth is largely driven by AI and corporate profits rather than widespread gains for ordinary workers.
Kaylee Wells and guests discuss a difficult week for major technology stocks, including Intel, Meta, Microsoft, and Google, as investors grow impatient with massive capital expenditures on AI that lack clear timelines for revenue returns.
Host Carl Rizdahl reports that Microsoft is offering voluntary buyouts to approximately 60,000 employees, representing a quarter of its workforce, to cut costs and help offset heavy investments in artificial intelligence.
Washington Post columnist Michael Koren discusses his trip to Mexico to test drive Chinese electric vehicles, noting that Chinese brands have captured about 90% of the EV market in Mexico while American carmakers have pulled back on EV investments.
Kai Risdahl reported that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, outperforming the previous quarter. However, inflation also rose, with the personal consumption expenditures price index reaching 3.6% in September.
Rebenishore reported that consumer spending remained relatively robust, supported in part by a drop in the personal savings rate to 3.8% in September, down from about 5% a year prior.
Kai Risdahl and Kaylee Wells reported that Alphabet shares cratered by nearly 12.5% following its third-quarter earnings report, marking its worst single-day performance since going public 22 years ago and wiping out roughly half a trillion dollars in market capitalization.
Samantha Fields reported that Solberry Orchards in Pennsylvania lost virtually all of its apple and peach crops after an unseasonal stretch of 80 to 90-degree days in April was followed by a freeze.
Kai Risdahl noted that The Cheesecake Factory reported quarterly earnings with revenue topping $1 billion, representing an increase of a little more than 10%.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh announced that starting next year, the Fed will take one of its eight annual meetings off from discussing or voting on interest rates to dedicate it to strategic planning and deliberations.
According to the Federal Reserve, total student loan debt in the United States has reached just under $1.9 trillion, roughly equivalent to the entire economy of Florida.
A survey conducted by the Student Debt Crisis Center revealed that nearly two-thirds of student loan borrowers have cut back spending on basic needs like food, housing, and healthcare to make loan payments.
The National Retail Federation predicted that holiday spending will be 4.2 percent higher this year compared to last, surpassing a total of one trillion dollars.
The Commerce Department reported that September core durable goods orders rose 0.5% from August, continuing an upward trend seen in 10 of the past 12 months, driven partly by AI spending as well as broad manufacturing demand.
According to the Census Bureau, new home sales fell more than 5% year-over-year in September, and median new home prices dropped nearly 4% as builders cut prices. Meanwhile, the Case-Shiller index showed existing home prices nationally rose about 2% through August.
The Democracy and Capitalism Lab at the University of Virginia introduced the Global Capitalism Index, which measures elements like property rights and market competitiveness. Lab director Scott Miller noted that Switzerland ranked number one, while warning that U.S. rankings could slide due to tariff debates and free-flow of goods constraints.
The Conference Board's October Consumer Confidence Index rose to its highest level since June, a bounce largely driven by lower gas and food prices at the time of the survey. However, CEO Steve Odland and other experts caution it is only a temporary blip amid a broader downward trend.
An analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas highlights that SpaceX's presence in Brownsville, Texas, has helped lower unemployment and raise wages, while drawing other industrial developments like LNG plants to the region, according to local officials.
Anthropic PBC filed its SEC Form S-1 registration statement, with the ticker symbol A-N-T. Kai Ryssdal noted that the S-1 reveals the company's capital expenditures and indebtedness are set to increase substantially, while its risk factors include 94 pages detailing catastrophic or existential risks.
Microsoft announced plans to offer voluntary buyouts to 60,000 employees, representing about a quarter of its total workforce, in order to fund its upcoming AI investments.
The Department of Energy added helium to its list of critical materials due to its high risk of supply chain disruption and essential nature for energy technologies like MRIs and microchips. Consultants point to supply pressures from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cutting off Qatar.
Analyst John Canavan of Oxford Economics stated that term premiums on 10-year bonds have risen due to investor concerns about absorbing heavy government debt issuance and risks stemming from the war in the Middle East affecting oil prices and inflation.
According to the American Farmland Trust cited on the program, housing developments have been paving over or otherwise compromising about 2,000 acres of farmland a day, driving retiring farmers to use conservation easements.
Kai Ryssdal reported that JP Morgan estimates the fair value of Brent crude at $94 a barrel based on supply and demand realities, while the market closed at $115.20 a barrel due to geopolitical risk factors.
Sudeep Reddy and Jordan Holman discussed how ongoing geopolitical conflicts and massive investments in AI are creating a complex economic puzzle. Reddy noted that oil prices pushing inflation up while potentially restraining growth present simultaneous inflationary and deflationary risks.
Boston College law professor Patricia McCoy warned Kai Rizdahl that retirement accounts and pensions are heavily overweighted in AI-related companies. She cautioned that if these companies miss earnings targets, investors could pull their funds, triggering a crisis similar to 2008.
Mitchell Hartman reported that the October S&P Global Market Intelligence Purchasing Managers Index indicates U.S. business activity remains near a five-year high, driven largely by AI boosting manufacturing and construction, though prices charged for goods and services are rising at their fastest rate in four years.
Leila Goldstein reported that illegal online scam compounds in Southeast Asia—operating like tech campuses with phone farms and scripted romance-to-crypto investment lures—defraud unsuspecting Americans out of an estimated $10 billion per year.
Kai Rizdahl noted that American Express plans to cut 3,500 jobs, representing about 5% of its workforce. This reduction follows similar recent layoff announcements by eBay, Volvo, and Barclays.
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, announced that the company will postpone its initial public offering (IPO) until it can make confident safety decisions regarding its artificial intelligence technology. This decision impacts OpenAI's fundraising strategy, as it will need to secure capital from alternative sources.
Business investment in AI is significantly contributing to the second quarter's GDP growth, with spending on AI accounting for an estimated quarter of GDP growth over the past year. Companies are investing heavily in AI-related software, communications equipment, and data centers to avoid falling behind competitors, though a portion of the necessary high-tech components are imported.
While significant investment is flowing into AI, its ultimate impact on productivity is still unclear. Experts draw parallels to the 1990s IT boom, which had a slower-than-expected effect on productivity, and question whether AI will be a transformative technology like the wheel or a less impactful innovation like the fax machine.
The Federal Reserve believes the US labor market is operating at full employment, with an unemployment rate around 4.1%. However, analysts note a lack of 'churn,' indicating that fewer people are leaving jobs for better opportunities and those unemployed are finding it harder to secure new positions. This suggests potential underlying issues despite the low unemployment rate.
A growing number of large private companies are opting to stay private longer, delaying IPOs and seeking capital from alternative sources like venture capital, sovereign wealth funds, and hedge funds. This trend allows companies to avoid public market scrutiny while investors can gain stakes at earlier, potentially more lucrative valuations.
Farms are increasingly turning to agritourism, combining agricultural activities with recreational attractions, to supplement income as traditional farming faces declining prices and rising input costs. This diversification, encompassing activities like tractor rides, corn mazes, and wine tours, has become a significant revenue stream, with some farms deriving a substantial portion of their income from these ventures.
Hotter and drier growing conditions in Canada over the past five years have led to the production of spicier mustard seeds, impacting the flavor profile of mustard products. This climate-driven change has been noted by the Canadian Grain Commission, which monitors the compound responsible for mustard's kick, leading to unexpected spice levels in recipes.
A Chicago-based neon sign maker, Tom Brickler of Fishtail Neon, has embraced LED technology alongside traditional neon, recognizing the need to adapt to market demands. While some purists dismiss LED, Brickler's business offers both, catering to a renewed appreciation for handcrafted glass neon signs. He also highlights the challenge of finding skilled artisans to continue the craft.
Bond yields across the US Treasury curve have risen again, with some reaching 19-year highs. This trend suggests that future economic activity will be more expensive due to increased interest rates on government debt. The market is reflecting strong business activity, high government debt, and an unclear geopolitical landscape.
Economists are closely watching the upcoming September jobs report for signs of whether last month's strong job growth was an anomaly or indicative of a healthier labor market. While the unemployment rate remains low and layoffs are down, concerns persist about weak wage growth and a slowdown in hiring rates, reminiscent of the post-Great Recession period.
Nvidia has announced plans to buy back $150 billion of its own stock over the next couple of years, surpassing Apple's previous record. This move comes on top of an existing $80 billion buyback and signals the company's significant cash generation. Analysts suggest this is a way for Nvidia to return excess profits to shareholders, though some question if investments in AI startups or chip development might be more strategic.
Volunteer firefighters in rural areas like Sublette County, Wyoming, are facing a significant shortage, with numbers down 200,000 nationwide over the past two decades. This decline is attributed to increased demands on people's time, multiple job requirements, and the cost of living. The lack of volunteers forces existing crews to alter strategies during emergencies and strains the operational capacity of fire departments.
An individual in St. Paul, Minnesota, faced an unexpected early retirement at age 59 after being terminated from a remote job that could not accommodate a return-to-office requirement. This sudden change, driven by the need to care for a parent with dementia, led to a financial reassessment and a period of personal redefinition. The experience is described as terrifying but ultimately a 'gift' that necessitates figuring out a new identity and place in a familiar city.
Adobe predicts online holiday sales will reach $275 billion this year, a nearly 7% increase from the previous year. Despite high fuel prices and household finance pressures, consumer spending on discretionary items like foreign travel, vehicles, and dining out remains resilient. Retailers face challenges managing increased shipping costs and deciding whether to pass these onto consumers, with potential discounts of up to 30% expected online.
Contrary to past reports of their demise, American malls are experiencing a revival, with their values now outperforming all other commercial property categories. This comeback is attributed to malls successfully fulfilling their role as retail and entertainment destinations, attracting shoppers and retailers alike. High-end malls with luxury stores, popular dining options, and significant owner investment in upkeep are seeing the most success, offering experiences not replicable online.
Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded a three-day state visit to Washington, which included an extension of the trade truce between the US and China for two months. Despite extensive pageantry and a state dinner attended by tech titans, the visit yielded limited concrete progress on trade issues. Analysts suggest that ongoing skepticism between the two economic powers hinders deeper trade relations.
During Chinese President Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington, a notable absence of Chinese tech executives from a state dinner, despite the attendance of prominent American business leaders, has been highlighted. This lack of participation from Chinese companies signals the current strain in US-China relations, where business ties, once considered the 'ballast,' are now significantly diminished.
Yields on US Treasuries have climbed to around 5% or higher, driven by concerns over the nation's large debt and deficits, as well as rising inflation. Investors are demanding higher rates, a trend also observed globally, with recent oil price increases further fueling inflation worries and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
A new report from the Congressional Budget Office suggests that if interest rates remain just 1 percentage point above expectations, the US government's interest payments could significantly increase, potentially ballooning the national debt. This scenario could also drag down economic growth, making it harder for private companies to secure loans and reducing federal tax revenue.
The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), a key agency assisting farmers with soil and water conservation, has lost nearly a quarter of its staff nationwide due to federal workforce cuts. This reduction in personnel is causing delays and difficulties for farmers seeking technical assistance for soil erosion prevention and other conservation practices.
A new scorecard report from the Private Equity Climate Risk Consortium reveals that 20 major private equity firms are responsible for an estimated 1.5 gigatons of annual greenhouse gas emissions through their fossil fuel investments. The report aims to inform institutional investors, such as public pension funds and university endowments, about the climate risks associated with these investments.
Several Federal Reserve officials have indicated that further interest rate increases may be necessary to combat inflation. New York Fed President John Williams suggested another rate hike could be appropriate by the end of the year, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid stated the Fed still has work to do on inflation.
Economists suggest that supply-side shocks causing inflation are becoming more frequent and longer-lasting, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve's strategy. Nationwide Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin believes these shocks are no longer considered temporary.
The job market remains strong, with a significant majority of workers who experience layoffs transitioning to new jobs or even entirely different industries. Career transition company LH H found that 58% of those laid off moved into different roles or sectors.
The increasing adoption of digital transformation and artificial intelligence is leading many workers to leave traditional roles, particularly in areas like customer service and office support. John Morgan of LH H notes that automation and AI are key drivers, affecting roles often considered 'foot-in-the-door jobs'.
The Houston housing market is described as 'unstable,' with market conditions varying significantly by price point rather than neighborhood. Executive managing broker Leticia Grant notes that demand is higher for attainable properties in the mid-200,000s and below $200,000, especially from builders.
The approaching 'super El Niño' is predicted to cause significant weather pattern shifts, including heavy rainfall in the Southern US and warmer, drier conditions in the North. This phenomenon is of particular interest to catastrophe modeling firms like Karen Clark & Company, which assess potential flood and storm damage.
Dan Ward of Karen Clark & Company explained that El Niño conditions typically lead to an increase in hurricanes in the Atlantic, contrasting with La Niña patterns which often see reduced activity in the Pacific. Each storm, however, presents unique challenges for impact assessment.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond reached 5.135%, its highest point in two years. This rise is significant given the substantial borrowing by the U.S. government.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has risen to nearly 7.2%, a two-year high. Consequently, mortgage applications have declined for three consecutive weeks, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
The combination of high mortgage rates and slowing demand has led to a slowdown in home price growth, with a 2% yearly increase. Simultaneously, more homeowners are listing their properties, potentially due to seller fatigue or concern about future price drops.
High interest rates have eroded consumer purchasing power by approximately 10% this year, leading homebuilders to reduce new construction. Permit and start numbers are down year-to-date, as builders anticipate mortgage rates remaining above 6% for the next two years.
Robin Wigglesworth, author of 'A Fabulous Debt,' highlights the bond market as the bedrock of the financial system, responsible for most lending. He warns that while less transparent than stocks, the bond market is prone to 'hissy fits' that can cause global problems, citing the 2008 crisis as an example.
The U.S. government is facing increased costs for servicing its $40 trillion debt as interest rates rise. While not yet apocalyptic, servicing the debt currently costs 3.5% of annual gross output, a figure projected to reach 5% in 10 years if current trends continue.
Efforts by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to influence the bond market are seen as ineffective, akin to trying to douse a fire with a water pistol. Actions like buybacks are considered minor compared to the trillions traded daily, potentially drawing more attention to issues and worsening them.
The world's oldest known continuously paying bond, issued 400 years ago by a Dutch water works to fund dike repairs, still pays approximately 13 euros annually. The bond, written on goatskin, was gifted to the New York Stock Exchange as a symbol of friendship.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is attempting to avoid giving explicit forward guidance on monetary policy, but his statements, including remarks at Jackson Hole about inflation and the removal of accommodation, have inadvertently signaled future policy intentions. Experts suggest that while Warsh aims for policy ambiguity, his words often provide market hints.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh suggested that the economy might not need to harm labor markets to achieve inflation objectives, alluding to 'immaculate disinflation.' This implies a belief that productivity gains, possibly from AI, could alter traditional economic rules, allowing for rate hikes without significant economic slowdown.
President Trump has publicly criticized the Federal Reserve and Chair Kevin Warsh, advocating for interest rates below 1%. His interactions with the Fed chair and his past attempts to influence personnel decisions have raised concerns about potential political interference in monetary policy, with worries that he may view board members as obstacles to his desired economic policies.
Consumer spending remains robust, according to recent retail sales data, with consumers increasing overall spending by shopping at more stores. However, this strength is accompanied by a record high in credit card debt and an increase in personal loans. The average ticket price is down, suggesting consumers are actively bargain hunting.
Rising Treasury yields are causing a decrease in the value of existing bonds held by banks, impacting their liquidity and lending capacity. While banks see higher yields as a safe alternative to loans, the volatility and falling portfolio values make them hesitant to significantly increase their Treasury holdings.
US companies are experiencing the impact of tariffs and shifting trade dynamics with Canada. Ben Clark of Clark Limited notes that 'Made in USA' is no longer a positive marketing pitch in Canada, and his company is bracing for potential tariffs on supplies. Similarly, Mike Demaris of Track Inc. faces uncertainty over tariffs on snow grooming equipment, with a 50% tariff potentially making sales unviable.
Ron Willie of All American Marine reports that tariffs have significantly impacted his business, which relies on Canadian suppliers for boat parts like propellers and rudders. An updated interpretation of tariffs by the US led to a 25% overnight increase in the cost of these parts, a cost that Willie has had to pass on to his customers.
The Federal Reserve, under Kevin Warsh, is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point at its upcoming meeting. However, the central bank's lack of forward guidance is causing uncertainty on Wall Street.
While a single rate hike from the Fed is unlikely to immediately impact stocks, Wall Street anticipates a series of hikes. Markets are already pricing in three to four rate increases by next summer.
The US labor market is showing a stark divergence, with those without college degrees experiencing a strong year, marked by low unemployment and wage growth. Conversely, recent college graduates face a tougher job market.
While AI currently has less impact on jobs not requiring a bachelor's degree, economist Gad Levon predicts this will change. He warns that automation will increasingly affect manual labor jobs in the future, potentially influencing decisions about higher education.
US ports, including Long Beach and Los Angeles, are experiencing record import volumes, driven by a strong economy and global uncertainty. This surge is occurring despite trade wars, inflation, and ongoing conflicts.
Companies are increasing imports to hedge against economic uncertainty and changing tariffs, according to supply chain experts. This 'inventory front-loading' is contributing to the high volumes seen at US ports.
Economist Wendy Edelberg discusses the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, suggesting that despite hawkish rhetoric, a rate hike might be avoided. She points to potentially revised inflation and employment data as reasons for the Fed to consider pausing.
Central banks worldwide are signaling a shift towards tighter monetary policy to combat persistent inflation. The European Central Bank has already raised its benchmark rate, and the Bank of Japan is expected to follow suit, while the Bank of England is anticipated to hold rates steady.
The US dollar has seen a recent rise as currency traders anticipate a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Experts suggest the dollar's strength, while not indicative of peak performance, stems from it being the 'least worst' option compared to other global currencies facing significant economic challenges.
A coordinated hawkish turn among global central banks is underway, with many raising interest rates to fight persistent inflation. Risks like the Middle East war and energy prices are contributing to inflation pressures, which vary in intensity across different economies.
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