Marketplace · Thursday, September 3, 2026
A decline in immigration and an increase in baby boomer retirements have led to a lower 'break-even' job growth rate, meaning fewer new jobs are needed to maintain a steady unemployment rate. Economists like Heidi Shreholtz note that this reduced job creation can impact labor market dynamism, making it harder for new workers to find opportunities.
“Immigration has gone into decline. The baby boomers are retiring. And so you would expect the economy on average, actually will not add jobs because the labor force is not growing.”
“Break-even monthly job growth? When Trump took office, it was likely around 120,000. Now, highest estimates are around 50,000. And many are much lower, like zero.”
“Somebody who doesn't have as much work experience, especially new entrants, new grads starting out their career, that's who is really facing the most challenges.”
“It's very difficult right now to get back into full-time employment because opportunities are so limited.”