finance
Ready to grow your wealth through smarter investing decisions? With The Meb Faber Show, bestselling author, entrepreneur, and investment fund manager, Meb Faber, brings you insights on today’s markets and the art of investing. Featuring some of the top investment professionals in the world as his guests, Meb will help you interpret global equity, bond, and commodity markets just like the pros. Whether it’s smart beta, trend following, value investing, or any other timely market topic, each week you’ll hear real market wisdom from the smartest minds in investing today. Better investing starts here. For more information on Meb, please visit MebFaber.com. For more on Cambria Investment Management, visit CambriaInvestments.com.
Robin Wigglesworth, author of "A Fabulous Debt," argues that bonds are the most important part of the financial system, despite the stock market's greater glamour. He asserts that bond prices are effectively the price of money and that bonds rule everything around us, even explaining the US's status as a hyperpower.
Wigglesworth highlights the significant, often overlooked, influence of the bond market on political events. He points to instances where the bond market's reactions caused former US President Trump to pause policy decisions and directly led to the downfall of a UK prime minister within 50 days.
The origins of the modern bond market can be traced back to Venice in 1171, where a forced war loan on citizens evolved into a tradable instrument. This innovation by the Doge of Venice allowed the city-state to finance a war fleet and fundamentally changed how governments could raise capital.
The crucial innovation that turned debt into a market was tradability, allowing bonds to be bought and sold. This enabled capital to disperse across numerous citizens and move through time, fundamentally changing how governments and entities could finance themselves.
The Dutch played a significant role in developing the bond market, not only for national independence but also through corporate innovations. The Dutch East India Company (VOC) was responsible for the first issue of corporate bonds and the establishment of the first stock market.
The podcast recounts the infamous scam of Gregor MacGregor, who styled himself as the 'Roderick' of the 'Principality of Poyais' on the Mosquito Coast. He duped hundreds of people into selling their belongings and moving to what he claimed was a paradise, but was in reality a barren and disease-ridden land, leading to the death of most settlers.
The Dutch took their bond market expertise seriously, to the point where some 400-year-old Dutch bonds, inscribed on goatskin, are still said to pay interest. One such bond is reportedly owned by the New York Stock Exchange.
AllianceBernstein's Inigo Fraser Jenkins argues for a strategic overweight in US equities, citing AI benefits and more favorable demographics compared to Europe and China. He acknowledges that US profit margins have grown significantly, but notes that further indefinite growth may be limited by social consequences, though voters have not yet pushed back.
Inigo Fraser Jenkins expresses a more balanced view on the US dollar's reserve currency status, highlighting fiscal sustainability concerns and the 'weaponization of the dollar' as factors that could lead to a shift away. He notes that while there is no immediate alternative, geopolitical events and capricious policymaking might increase the perceived risk of dollar exposure for some nations.
Inigo Fraser Jenkins discusses the increasing difficulty for investors to find diversification in the current market, suggesting that the US market, despite its concentration and potential discomfort, may be a primary source of real returns. He acknowledges that this comes with trade-offs like higher volatility and illiquidity.
AI is expected to raise productivity, but the primary benefit may be maintaining current growth rates rather than creating an uplift. Inigo Fraser Jenkins suggests that AI's impact will be most significant in certain sectors, potentially leading to job dislocation in the near term due to rationalization of the labor force.
Paul Kedrosky highlights that AI represents a new kind of growth, unlike historical bubbles, because it sits at the intersection of multiple forces. He notes that AI's scale is difficult for humans to grasp due to its exponential nature, both in adoption and deflation.
Paul Kedrosky describes the current AI moment as the first bubble in history to combine all the typical ingredients of a bubble: loose credit, a compelling technology story, a real estate component, and a policy angle. He contrasts this with historical bubbles like railroads and canals.
Paul Kedrosky points out that AI is experiencing a rapid deflationary curve, describing it as the fastest deflating commodity in the history of quasi-industrial commodities, with prices falling an estimated 70-80% annually.
Paul Kedrosky suggests that humans struggle to comprehend large numbers and historical economic cycles, leading to a repeated pattern of not knowing what to do during bubbles. This is illustrated by a common sentiment from the dot-com crisis.
Paul Kedrosky highlights that the immense scale and energy demands of AI, particularly from data centers often powered by behind-the-meter natural gas turbines, create environmental consequences that AI itself will need to solve.
Luke Gromen discusses the shift in US economic policy from neoliberalism and globalization towards Hamiltonian economics, characterized by protectionism and domestic industry focus. This shift is seen as a response to the hollowing out of the US industrial and defense base.
Luke Gromen highlights Vice President JD Vance's reference to the "stupid Washington consensus," which describes the financialization and offshoring of the US economy. Vance's comments in early 2025 are seen as an early indicator of a push towards reshoring by the Trump administration.
Luke Gromen points out that the US military has been warning about the national security risks associated with offshoring the defense industrial base. Citing Admiral Michael Mullen's 2011 statement, he explains that borrowing from China to build weapons against China with Chinese components is a critical vulnerability.
Gromen defines Hamiltonian economics as advocating for high tariffs, protection of domestic industry, and a neutral reserve asset, contrasting it with the US's last 35-40 years of neoliberal, globalized policies. He notes that Alexander Hamilton's 1791 report on manufacturers laid the groundwork for this approach.
Luke Gromen suggests that under the new Hamiltonian economic regime, the US industrial base, middle and working class nominal wages, inflation, and gold are likely to be the winners. Conversely, the previous neoliberal era benefited Washington and Wall Street at the expense of the broader American populace.
Gromen posits that under a Hamiltonian economic system, the US Treasury bond may no longer be the world's reserve asset. He explains that the shift from offshoring dollars to reshoring manufacturing means deficits must be resolved differently, with massive implications for capital flows, the dollar, and national competitiveness.
The Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL) returned approximately 55% in 2025, outperforming all US diversified active ETFs, according to Meb Faber. Faber suggests that while past performance isn't indicative of future results, this performance signals potential opportunities in neglected market segments as market leadership shifts. GVAL focuses on undervalued stocks in less expensive global markets, a strategy that differs from cap-weighted indexes heavily concentrated in US mega-cap stocks.
Meb Faber highlights the risks associated with the decade-long outperformance of US large-cap stocks, including concentration and valuation risk. He notes that while diversification has often been viewed as a less exciting necessity, the changing market landscape suggests it could be a source of significant returns. The strategy of the Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL) is presented as a way to capitalize on this potential shift by investing in undervalued global markets.
Faber points out that the valuation differential between the US stock market and the rest of the world is currently one of the widest in history. He suggests that this presents opportunities for investors willing to look beyond popular, expensive US names. The Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL) is designed to capitalize on this by identifying undervalued stocks in global markets.
The Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL) employs a methodology that screens 45 countries for undervalued markets using long-term valuation metrics and then selects the most undervalued stocks from the top 30 largest companies within those countries. This approach results in a portfolio significantly different from cap-weighted indexes, with heavier exposure to countries like Austria and Poland, and sectors like financials and materials, while maintaining a lower P/E ratio compared to benchmarks like MSCI ACWI.
Meb Faber outlines four primary ways investors can utilize the Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL): as core international exposure, a portfolio diversifier to reduce US home country bias, a tactical value play, or a counterbalance to existing growth stock allocations. He suggests that as the world becomes more fragmented, global diversification may offer increasing benefits.
Performance data for the Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL) shows its net asset value and market price returns have outpaced the MSCI ACWI index over three-year and five-year periods as of June 30, 2026. While GVAL's 10-year and since-inception returns have lagged the MSCI ACWI, its recent performance highlights its ability to capture value opportunities.
Liaquat Ahamed, author of '1873: The Rothschilds, The First Great Depression, and the Making of the Modern World,' details the similarities between the 1873 global financial crisis and modern crises. He highlights that the 1873 event, like many booms, was preceded by a period of rapid economic growth, with global trade expanding significantly.
Liaquat Ahamed explains that the pre-1873 economic boom was characterized by the first era of globalization, driven by massive capital flows from Britain and France. This capital funded infrastructure development worldwide, with railroads being a key component, leading to a significant expansion in world trade.
Liaquat Ahamed notes the emergence of a new class of savers in Europe during the mid-19th century, leading to lower real interest rates. This prompted investors to seek alternative investments beyond equities, which had experienced a deep bear market. The Rothschilds and the Bearings became dominant forces, underwriting 70% of global bonds.
A journalist's quote vividly describes the speculative fervor of the boom period, noting that "Everyone flew into the flame, the shrewd capitalist and the inexperienced petty bourgeois, the general and the waiter, the woman of the world, the poor piano teacher, and the market woman, a shower of gold rained down on the drunken city." Ahamed notes the quote's relevance to modern manias.
Liaquat Ahamed explains that the German stock market experienced a massive bubble following the Franco-Prussian War. The billion-dollar reparation payment from France, injected into the German economy, represented a significant portion of its GDP and led to excessive foreign investment.
Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Research, stated that the activist short-selling model is not scalable due to the pace of change. He also shared that short sellers face higher rates of depression and mental illness compared to other investors, a situation he believes is both a cause and effect of the profession.
Carson Block criticized both the Biden/Gensler SEC for focusing on paperwork and compliance costs rather than substantive enforcement, and historically, Republicans for gutting agencies. He believes current agencies need to be torn down rather than fixed.
Carson Block observed that retail investors, particularly those invested in stocks like Sofi, have become "rabid" and that some have issued death threats against critics. He feels that management going after critics is now seen as sport by many retail longs.
Carson Block predicts that AI will displace a significant portion of knowledge workers, estimating around 15% of US knowledge workers within three years. He believes this will lead to a substantial decrease in aggregate demand and have a deflationary impact.
Carson Block discussed the Wirecard scandal as an example of prolonged corporate fraud, noting that critics were active as early as 2008, but the company only collapsed in 2020. He highlighted how German prosecutors investigated journalists for manipulation, showcasing the complexity and "evil genius" of the perpetrators.
Carson Block indicated that Muddy Waters is diversifying its strategy, exploring short positions in the bond market and private markets, in addition to equities. He described shorting equities as "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller" and highlighted the difficulty and lack of upside in bond shorting.
Historian Dr. Joseph Moore argues that historical US currency systems, particularly in the 1800s, were highly unstable due to self-issued currencies by banks and individuals. He draws parallels between these past systems and modern cryptocurrency, suggesting that the future of crypto may resemble these earlier, often problematic, forms of money. Moore notes that the introduction of the government-backed 'greenback' was widely welcomed as a solution to this instability.
Dr. Joseph Moore challenges the common perception that real estate is the primary path to great wealth, citing that none of the 100 largest US fortunes were initially made in real estate. He highlights that while real estate has been a significant tool for average Americans to build modest fortunes, particularly through leverage and favorable inflation, it's not the engine for massive wealth creation seen in industries like manufacturing or tech.
Dr. Joseph Moore explains that the historical success of real estate for average Americans was less about property appreciation and more about leveraging debt, especially when inflation was high. He uses his father's experience buying a home with a low fixed-rate mortgage during a period of rising inflation to illustrate how inflation can make leveraged debt more manageable and even profitable.
Dr. Joseph Moore posits that true wealth creation stems from identifying and solving problems for other people, regardless of the specific industry. He emphasizes that whether it's through real estate, stocks, bonds, or businesses, the underlying principle of providing value by addressing needs is what drives financial success. Moore also cautions against bad financial advice, urging listeners to do their own research and think critically.
Dr. Joseph Moore advocates for a long-term approach to investing, emphasizing the importance of buying assets one believes in and holding them through market fluctuations. He dismisses market timing and stock picking as common mistakes, stating that true wealth is built by investing for the long haul. Moore also shares his personal journey of learning from mistakes and persevering in his investment strategy.
Dr. Joseph Moore stresses a fundamental distinction between saving and investing, stating that genuine wealth creation requires putting money to work through smart and strategic investments. He references his grandfather's advice, 'never save money, get it out of your hands as fast as you can,' to highlight the active nature of building wealth. Moore believes historical lessons are crucial for making better financial decisions today.
Dr. Joseph Moore challenges the widely held belief that stocks consistently outperform bonds, citing recent academic research that disputes this notion. He contrasts this with personal anecdotes, including a humorous reference to being lectured by Jim Cramer and missing significant family moments due to his focus on financial matters.
Rebecca Anderson of McKinsey Global Institute discussed the "secret sauce" behind the US's economic success over the past 250 years. She identified key factors including vast natural resources and a strong culture of innovation and entrepreneurship, stating that the US has been involved in three-quarters of the top 100 inventions of the last 250 years.
Rebecca Anderson explained that the US economy's historical success is built on natural endowments like arable land and navigable waterways, as well as its infrastructure and institutions. The US Constitution, with its protection of property rights and internal free trade, fostered a large common market that allowed businesses to scale.
Rebecca Anderson outlined four historical chapters of the US economy, each defined by leadership in a specific industry driven by innovation. These chapters include the early agricultural focus, the industrial revolution characterized by manufacturing and inventions like the assembly line, and post-WWII leadership in science and technology.
Matt Faber introduced a special series on the past, present, and future of America, coinciding with the release of his new book, "Investing in America: The Rise of a 250-Year Bull Market." The series aims to explore American financial history with notable historians, thinkers, and investors.