The Indicator from Planet Money · Monday, September 7, 2026
Sarah Matson, an economist at the BLS, explains that job growth projections are based on extrapolating historical trends and considering demographic changes. However, she acknowledges that entirely new factors like AI are difficult to predict solely from historical data, requiring her team to apply research to initial estimates.
“Factors such as the general aging of the population and general population change and stuff like that.”
“But, um, there's no amount of historical data that can project trends that don't yet exist in the historical data. Um, AI, of course, is a great example of that.”
“So that's where my team comes in and we apply our research to those initial estimates to kind of move them as we see appropriate for the, um, emerging trends.”