finance
A bite-sized show about big ideas. From the people who make Planet Money, The Indicator helps you make sense of what's happening in today's economy. It's a quick hit of insight into money, work, and business. Monday through Friday, in 10 minutes or less. Sign up for our newsletter. Support public media by joining NPR+ at plus.npr.org. You’ll get perks for over 25 NPR podcasts, including bonus episodes for Planet Money and sponsor-free listening for The Indicator.
Weyland Wong reported that America's top corporations paid an effective tax rate of 10.4% in 2025, according to data from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. The group noted this is the lowest rate seen in 40 years of crunching numbers, and that roughly 100 companies—including Disney, Tesla, Southwest Airlines, Kohl's, and Duolingo—paid zero dollars in taxes due to loopholes and tax breaks.
Alex Mayasi shared that the percentage of discount limited-time offers on restaurant menus has increased from 22% to 27% since Donald Trump was elected in 2024. Citing data from Technomic, Mayasi explained that this rise in promotions like happy hours and value deals often tracks the overall health of the economy and may signal that consumers are feeling shaky about their finances ahead of the midterms.
Ricky Segall reported that prices for candy and chewing gum have increased by 7.7% over the past year according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Segall noted that price hikes are not evenly distributed, with Hershey's chocolate variety packs up about 20% due to rising cocoa and ingredient costs as well as tariffs.
Ricky Mulvey reports that data center company CoreWeave faces a 60% chance of defaulting on its debts in the next five years, according to Bloomberg data. Investors are growing wary as the company relies heavily on long-term leases and debt while artificial intelligence computation costs are dropping rapidly.
Adrian Ma shares that $963,000 worth of sports and Pokémon cards were stolen from the back of an unattended FedEx truck in Santa Ana, California. The cards had just been authenticated and graded by Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA) before being shipped back to customers.
Waylon Wong reports that the president of the Maple Syrup Producers Association in Quebec revealed the province's strategic maple syrup reserve has been reduced to zero. The depletion was driven by high US demand and commercial stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs.
Congresswoman Haley Stevens has introduced the "Blue Collar Social Security Fairness Act," which would allow individuals with a history of working in physically demanding jobs to collect full Social Security benefits at age 60, instead of the current age of 67. Proponents argue this change would make Social Security fairer for workers whose bodies may not withstand labor into their late 60s.
Alicia Minnell, founder of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, expressed concerns about the feasibility of Congresswoman Stevens' proposal to lower the retirement age for physically demanding jobs. She believes defining and agreeing upon which jobs qualify would be a politically difficult and lengthy process.
Alicia Minnell warns that allowing a segment of the population to claim Social Security benefits at age 60, as proposed by Congresswoman Stevens, could exacerbate the program's existing financial instability. With the main trust fund projected to run out by 2032, such a change could lead to benefit cuts for all retirees.
Alicia Minnell proposes an alternative to lowering the retirement age for physically demanding jobs: making it easier for workers in these roles to qualify for Social Security disability benefits. She notes that the disability insurance program is currently on solid financial footing, unlike the retirement trust fund.
A study by the National Academy of Sciences revealed that individuals in the top 20 percent income bracket live approximately 13 years longer than those in the bottom 20 percent. This disparity means higher earners collect Social Security benefits for a significantly longer period, potentially impacting the program's progressive nature.
Nari Rhee, director of the retirement security program at the UC Berkeley Labor Center, supports Congresswoman Stevens' proposal to allow workers in physically demanding jobs to retire earlier. She believes this would ensure people can retire with dignity and avoid working until their bodies are too worn out.
The latest jobs report indicates a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% in September, with the economy adding 29,000 jobs. Additionally, annual wage growth has slowed to 3%, falling behind the inflation rate of 3.4%, meaning wages are not keeping pace with the rising cost of living.
University of Texas at San Antonio has launched a new Health Sciences degree program designed to make students more competitive for medical and dental school. Senior Case Brown switched his major to Health Sciences from Biology, citing the new program's tailored courses and hands-on training as beneficial for his career aspirations as a doctor.
Arizona State University has introduced a new Bachelor's of Arts program focused on content creation, often referred to as 'influencing.' This program is intended to attract students and train them for emerging job markets in the digital space.
The Savannah College of Art and Design (SCAD) has discontinued its sculpture degree program, shifting focus to fields with clearer job prospects. This decision is part of a broader trend of universities re-evaluating programs based on their potential for sustainable careers and graduate employment rates.
The Savannah College of Art and Design (SCAD) has introduced a new major in Applied Artificial Intelligence, partnering with NVIDIA. This program aims to equip students with skills for careers in AI product design and development, with NVIDIA providing support through donated graphics cards.
SCAD graduates are reportedly working on 'digital twins,' which are digital versions of real people. This technology could allow for conversations with digital replicas, raising fascinating and potentially scary implications. The development is part of SCAD's new Applied AI major.
The number of bachelor's degrees awarded in humanities fields has fallen by 30 percent since 2012, according to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. This decline is linked to concerns about low earnings potential and the difficulty of justifying generalized degrees in a competitive job market.
Colleges are increasingly launching new degree programs aimed at preparing students for the jobs of the future, driven by market demands and technological advancements like AI. This includes specialized degrees and incorporating AI across disciplines, reflecting a shift towards career-focused education.
The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes are crucial for categorizing industries, monitoring economic activity, and awarding government contracts. Without a specific code, an industry faces significant challenges in data collection, decision-making, and access to federal contracts, as highlighted by the struggles of the emergency restoration industry.
The emergency restoration industry, which handles fire, water, mold, and biohazard cleanup, currently lacks a specific NAICS code despite being in operation for decades. This absence leads to difficulties in obtaining accurate commercial insurance rates, as businesses are often misclassified under codes with unrelated risk profiles.
Until 2022, the cannabis industry, despite being legal in many states, did not have a dedicated NAICS code. Analysts and researchers had to rely on indirect methods, such as tracking industry publications and associations, to gather data, making the process less accurate and more labor-intensive.
Industries seeking a new NAICS code must apply through a public comment process, with decisions made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Office of Management and Budget. If an application is unsuccessful, the industry must wait another five years to reapply, a process that requires significant effort and time.
The need for standardized industry classification arose in the 1930s with the development of economic indicators like GDP. The federal government initially implemented Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes, but by the 1990s, these were updated to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) to better accommodate emerging industries.
Some of the wealthiest Americans are utilizing complex investment strategies, pioneered by hedge funds like AQR Capital Management, to significantly reduce or even eliminate their tax liabilities. These 'tax-aware' strategies engineer investment losses to offset gains, a practice that has seen rapid growth and drawn scrutiny from policymakers and the IRS.
Cliff Asness, the founder of AQR Capital Management, is described as a 'mad genius' who developed sophisticated investment strategies to help the ultra-wealthy minimize taxes. Despite his brilliance, Asness is known for a volatile personality, admitting to punching computer screens during financial crises.
AQR Capital Management experienced explosive growth, managing $70 billion in its tax-aware investing accounts within three years, a feat that typically takes decades for other major hedge funds. This rapid influx of capital highlights the strong demand among wealthy clients for strategies that aggressively minimize tax burdens.
Sophisticated tax strategies employed by firms like AQR Capital Management may allow wealthy individuals to pass on their assets to heirs without ever triggering a tax liability. This raises questions about fairness, particularly when contrasted with the tax obligations of average citizens.
Concerns over 'potentially abusive tax avoidance strategies' have been raised by Treasury Department officials, although specific firms like AQR Capital Management have not been named. In response to regulatory uncertainty, some financial institutions, including Charles Schwab and Fidelity, have started to scale back their offerings of these complex tax accounts to new clients.
Despite potential regulatory scrutiny and a growing public conversation about taxing the wealthy, hedge funds are expected to continue offering sophisticated tax avoidance strategies. Lucretia Gifpolu suggests that unless these methods are declared illegal, firms will persist in providing them to clients seeking to minimize their tax obligations.
Financial advisors are increasingly pushing complex tax-loss strategies onto clients, even those for whom they may not be suitable. Investors can become trapped in accounts they do not fully understand, potentially incurring higher costs and facing difficulties in exiting these investments when desired.
A recent survey by the Urban Institute revealed that 21.6% of middle-income renters, defined as those earning three to five times the federal poverty level, reported difficulties paying their rent in 2025. These individuals either missed full payments or were late due to affordability issues. The study also found that nearly 21% of these renters struggled to pay their full utility bills.
The Trump administration, through the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, has canceled health insurance for approximately 760,000 individuals enrolled in Obamacare or the Affordable Care Act. Reasons cited include ineligibility for subsidies, access to employer-provided healthcare, or incomplete/improper application information. This comes as ACA enrollment has already declined, raising concerns about the marketplace's stability.
Approximately 11% of large employers either stopped covering GLP-1 medications like Ozempic and Zepbound last year or are considering doing so for next year, according to benefits consulting firm Mercer. While some executives see these drugs as a long-term health investment, their high cost is straining company budgets. Bank of America, for example, spends $250 million annually on these medications, representing over 10% of its healthcare budget.
A working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research indicates that GLP-1 medications may not decrease overall health spending within a five-year timeframe. While future results over longer periods or with generic versions entering the market could change this outlook, the current findings suggest a need for further evaluation of the long-term financial impact of these drugs on healthcare costs.
Billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban posited that the rising cost of healthcare benefits will have a greater impact on employment than artificial intelligence in the foreseeable future. He suggests that escalating healthcare expenses will be a more significant factor in job displacement or hiring decisions compared to the advancements and adoption of AI technology.
President Trump publicly praised Dell's products and its founders, Michael and Susan Dell, during a period when his financial disclosures show he bought up to $5 million in Dell stock. These remarks coincided with a $6.25 billion commitment from Dell towards a government program and a nearly $10 billion contract awarded to a Dell subsidiary by the Department of Defense.
Following a Truth Social post by President Trump highlighting Palantir's 'war fighting capabilities,' the company's stock experienced a 3% increase within minutes. This endorsement came around the same time Trump was trading Palantir stock and shortly before the company secured a Department of Homeland Security contract potentially worth up to $1 billion.
President Trump traded DoorDash stock in the months leading up to a White House event promoting the 'no tax on tips' policy, which featured a DoorDash driver delivering an order to the Oval Office. Trump praised the company during the event, stating, 'DoorDash does a really good job.'
An analysis found that President Trump made approximately 28,700 stock trades during his second term, significantly more than all members of Congress combined. This averages out to about 80 trades per day the market is open.
A White House spokesman stated that President Trump's stock and bond portfolio is managed by third-party financial institutions using automated models. The spokesman asserted that neither the President nor his family can direct or influence investment decisions.
President Trump, speaking at the UN, rejected international calls for a global body to oversee AI development, calling it a 'globalist scheme.' This stance comes as Trump and his family hold significant personal investments in the AI industry, which is identified as a primary driver of stock market gains.
The used car market is experiencing significant price increases, with a three-year-old vehicle now costing over $32,000. This surge is attributed to a combination of factors, including the "price waterfall" effect from rising new car prices, persistent supply chain issues from the pandemic, and automakers shifting production away from affordable sedans.
The pandemic's disruption to car production in 2020 continues to affect the used car market, leading to fewer choices for buyers. This reduced supply, described as a "choke point," is a key driver of higher prices for used vehicles.
A significant reason for the scarcity of affordable used cars is a business decision by automakers to stop producing entry-level sedans. Instead, manufacturers are focusing on larger, more expensive SUVs, leaving a gap in the market for budget-conscious car buyers.
The segment of the used car market for vehicles priced between $10,000 and $15,000 has significantly deteriorated. Cars in this price range are now, on average, nine years old with around 100,000 miles, compared to five years old in 2019.
While the overall used car market is marked by high prices, electric vehicles (EVs) present an exception where buyers may find significant discounts. Resale values for EVs are described as "atrocious," potentially leading to better deals for consumers.
The Houthis have seized control of Bahrain Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. This move by the Iran-allied rebel group, which has been battling Yemen's government since 2014, threatens to disrupt global shipping, including 15% of the world's seaborne trade. The seizure comes as Saudi Arabia suspended oil shipments from a Red Sea port after a drone attack on its pipeline.
Control of Bahrain Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by the Houthis poses a significant threat to global maritime trade, which normally sees 15% of seaborne goods pass through the Red Sea. This includes 30% of global container trade and 12% of oil traded by sea. The Houthis' actions have already caused Red Sea traffic to slow, and the capture of this island could halt it entirely.
The uncertainty surrounding the status of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, dubbed 'Schrodinger's Strait,' is adding friction to the global economy. Even without a complete closure, the perceived risk elevates insurance costs and tank rates. This situation exacerbates existing supply deficits and refinery outages, leading to higher prices for crude oil and refined products like diesel and gasoline.
The disruption of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait affects more than just oil; it impacts the passage of fertilizers, natural gas, and crucial industrial commodities like sulfur and helium. With limited increases in production from alternative sources like the US and Canada, shortages are expected to filter through to consumers globally. Helium, in particular, is vital for semiconductors and medical devices.
Americans should be concerned about the global supply chain disruptions because global markets are interconnected, and the US cannot fully isolate itself from international economic pressures. While some US producers might benefit from shortages, the American consumer is likely to bear the brunt of increased costs.
Beyond economic impacts, the Houthis' actions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, coupled with Iran's stance, are straining relationships between Middle Eastern nations and with the US and its allies. This deterioration in America's regional standing could hinder other US policy objectives, including fostering investments and onshoring production.
Mega tech companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon are borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars to finance the build-out of AI data centers. According to Vanguard, the five hyperscalers sold over $90 billion in bonds last year and have already issued more than $130 billion in 2026. This substantial borrowing is reshaping the bond market and could impact individual savings invested in bond funds.
The massive influx of AI-related bonds presents new risks, including potential technological obsolescence and lease renewal issues. Jonathan Mody of Aberdeen Investments highlights that some bond deals are tied to complex financing structures with a lack of standardization, and leases for data centers can extend for 15-30 years, raising questions about future demand and technology.
Companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft, referred to as hyperscalers, are now major players in the corporate bond market, with some issuing $25 billion in new bonds at once. Their increased activity is competing with U.S. Treasuries for investor dollars, potentially pushing up yields on government debt.
Despite concerns, there appears to be significant investor demand for the bonds issued by hyperscalers to fund AI infrastructure. For instance, Alphabet received orders worth over four times the amount of its $25 billion bond sale in August. However, Zachary Griffith notes that investors are beginning to demand slightly higher yields, indicating that pricing is becoming a more critical factor.
The bond market's stability, particularly for AI-related debt, could be influenced by macroeconomic factors such as potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Such increases would raise the overall cost of borrowing across the economy, directly impacting the debt burdens of tech companies building out data centers.
Flock cameras, an Atlanta-based company with over 120,000 units across the US, are valued at over $8 billion and are used by police to track stolen vehicles and criminals. However, they have also been misused for stalking, tracking legal activities, and even in cases of alleged abortion tracking. A study found that while motor vehicle thefts fell by 11% in areas using Flock cameras, the impact on crime rates is complex and not a guaranteed solution.
A study of several hundred jurisdictions found that areas implementing Flock cameras saw an 11% decrease in motor vehicle thefts and a 16% increase in locating suspects for these thefts. Researcher Scott Morgas cautioned that the cameras are not a 'magic bullet' and that crime is a complex phenomenon with many contributing factors.
Jason Keppler of 444 Media highlighted instances where Flock cameras have been used to track undocumented immigrants, protesters, and individuals crossing state lines for legal cannabis purchases. A notable case involved police using the Flock network to track a woman suspected of having an abortion, though she was not ultimately charged.
Following concerns over potential misuse and privacy, Texas Governor Greg Abbott recently ordered state agencies to pause funding and grants for Flock safety cameras. Multiple cities have also canceled or paused their contracts with Flock, although the company claims more cities are signing up than dropping renewals.
Flock cameras cost approximately $3,000 per year per unit for police departments, with Fargo, North Dakota spending about $130,000 annually. While Scott Morgas's research indicates a modest reduction in car thefts, he points out that the cameras are a 'patchwork' and not a comprehensive solution to crime, which is a complex issue.
A case in Florida highlighted the potential for error with Flock camera technology. Police were searching for a black SUV involved in a hit-and-run, and a woman driving a similar vehicle was wrongly identified and spent 13 days in jail, even though her car was not involved. This illustrates how automated policing systems can be prone to mistakes.
The US is seeing a renewed push for financial technology companies to obtain banking licenses. According to Michelle Alld, a consultant for these firms, a key bank regulator has announced it is once again accepting applications. This move aims to increase competition within the financial industry by allowing more 'fresh faces' to enter the banking sector.
The current administration has significantly increased the approval of new banking licenses. In 2026, more new banks have been approved than in the entirety of 2025. This indicates a more open approach by regulators towards granting licenses to financial technology companies.
Financial technology companies are actively pursuing US banking licenses, even though it means facing more regulatory oversight. Michelle Alld explains that these firms desire greater access to the US financial system. This pursuit is characterized by a willingness to embrace 'encumbrance' in exchange for expanded market participation.
Canada has implemented counter-tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on a variety of U.S. goods in response to earlier U.S. tariffs on Canadian products. These measures, affecting items like steel, dairy, and electronics, are seen by Canada as a necessary stand against perceived bullying tactics from the U.S. administration. The strategy appears to target goods from swing states to exert political pressure.
Paul Haversrud of CBC's Cost of Living podcast expressed significant concern over potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian autos, describing them as an 'existential threat' that could decimate the industry. This move, if enacted, would jeopardize the long-standing auto pact established in 1965, which has benefited both Canadian and U.S. automakers and workers.
Canada's counter-tariff strategy strategically targets goods originating from U.S. swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. The aim is to apply political pressure on the White House, particularly ahead of midterm elections. While about 80% of the tariffs are on industrial inputs, the remaining consumer goods are chosen for their potential political impact.
Eight Canadian provinces have independently decided to stop stocking Kentucky bourbon in their liquor stores as a retaliatory measure against U.S. tariffs. This action highlights a targeted consumer-level response to the broader trade dispute, with provinces asserting their control over alcohol purchases to express anger towards the U.S. administration.
Canadians are feeling that the U.S. administration's actions and rhetoric, including referring to the Canadian Prime Minister as 'governor,' are deeply disrespectful and not just a trade dispute. This sentiment, amplified by U.S. media, is being perceived by many as an existential threat to Canadian sovereignty and identity, fostering a defiant mood despite underlying anxiety.
Canada and the U.S. are currently engaged in a 'signaling' phase of their trade dispute, with Canada aiming to minimize disruption while acknowledging that the current $20 billion in tariffs are not the main event. The focus is shifting towards potential renegotiations of the USMCA (formerly NAFTA), indicating that broader trade discussions are yet to come.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) is a key resource for understanding future job market trends, as discussed by hosts Waylen Wong and Darren Woods. Listener Asa Hartsfield uses the OOH to find empirical data on job growth, median wages, and geographical concentrations for roles like Information Security Analyst.
Economist Maxime Massinkoff analyzed the historical accuracy of the BLS's Occupational Outlook Handbook projections from the 1940s to the 1980s. His research, initially motivated by AI developments and job security concerns, found a strong correlation between projected and actual job growth, though he notes that predicting entirely new trends like AI is challenging.
Sarah Matson, an economist at the BLS, explains that job growth projections are based on extrapolating historical trends and considering demographic changes. However, she acknowledges that entirely new factors like AI are difficult to predict solely from historical data, requiring her team to apply research to initial estimates.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics identifies top jobs with projected growth, including nurse practitioner, solar photovoltaic installer, and wind turbine service technician. Conversely, roles such as bank teller, desktop publisher, and bill collectors are projected to decrease.
The BLS's Occupational Outlook Handbook, first published in 1947 to assist returning World War II veterans, has maintained significant popularity and is the most visited section of the BLS website. Early predictions, like the increased demand for archaeologists due to highway construction, and the rise in veterinarians due to suburban pet ownership, have shown historical foresight.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects significant growth for Information Security Analysts, citing the increasing frequency of cyber attacks. This positive outlook benefits students pursuing careers in cybersecurity, as noted by Waylen Wong.
Showing the latest 15 of 41 covered episodes.