Masters in Business · Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Sal Gilberti emphasizes that wheat is a more political commodity than oil and is a fundamental staple crop globally, integral to human life. He notes that while India is the largest grower, its export volume is low, making global export availability the key factor influencing wheat prices, as dramatically seen during the Ukraine conflict.
“I don't know if you know Andy Heckt, but he basically says, you know, wheat is more political commodity than oil. It's older. I think it's mentioned fifty or seventy something times in the Bible, like wheat is wheat, it's it's a big deal.”
“What matters to the price of wheat is how much is available for export. Okay, and wheat versus corner soybeans probably has more countries that exported in volume than the other two. The other two big, big ones, and so it's important to know that at this eruption in you know, the the United States wheatbelt Okay, a disruption in China or India Okay, and I believe India is the number one grower of wheat in the world, but they don't. Export an Okay, that's really interesting.”
“So there's a big difference between how much wheat is grown in a certain spot and how much weat is exported in a certain spot. What investors care about is how much is exported, and that's why during the Ukraine War wheat prices exploded higher. Because of that. The amount exporter out of the Black Sea from Russia and Ukraine, which are they're both in the top five global wheat exports. Russia is number one by far, Okay, the EU is right up there as a block, so that whole area of the world exports. Most of the exports of the world come out of there.”