The Indicator from Planet Money · Tuesday, June 30, 2026
Chris Blattman explains that uncertainty about the strength of opposing forces and potential 'decapitation events' can lead countries to misjudge situations, initiating prolonged conflicts. He uses the example of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, where Putin may have been misled about Ukraine's capabilities, leading to an underestimation of resistance.
“Amidst this uncertainty, how strong is Iran? How strong is Ukraine?”
“But it can be really hard to tell the difference. And when countries misjudge others, that's when long wars can start.”
“Basically because people weren't pushing the real truth up the chain.”
“Yeah, and in reality, Ukraine was no way near as much of a pushover as Putin might have been led to believe.”