The Indicator from Planet Money · Tuesday, June 30, 2026
Chris Blattman, an economist and political scientist, states that the average war duration over the last 200 years has been less than two months. He notes that the recent intense fighting between the US and Iran aligns with this historical pattern, although longer conflicts like World Wars I & II, or those in Ukraine and Gaza, do not.
“I think the average war in the last 200 years has been less than two months long, and so this fits that pattern.”
“We don't know what will happen next, but if the fighting stays at the current lower simmer, then the Iran wars, hot stage, matched average historical lengths.”
“The two world wars do not fit that pattern.”