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The Indicator from Planet Money · Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Economist Chris Blattman: Average war lasts less than two months, current Iran conflict fits pattern

Chris Blattman, an economist and political scientist, states that the average war duration over the last 200 years has been less than two months. He notes that the recent intense fighting between the US and Iran aligns with this historical pattern, although longer conflicts like World Wars I & II, or those in Ukraine and Gaza, do not.

personChris Blattman

The tape

3 quotes
I think the average war in the last 200 years has been less than two months long, and so this fits that pattern.
Chris Blattman
We don't know what will happen next, but if the fighting stays at the current lower simmer, then the Iran wars, hot stage, matched average historical lengths.
Chris Blattman
The two world wars do not fit that pattern.
Chris Blattman
Heard on The Indicator from Planet Money — “What Iran teaches us about why wars start, published Tuesday, June 30, 2026. Heardvine summarizes and quotes with attribution and timestamps, and links to the original everywhere.
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Economist Chris Blattman: Average war lasts less than two months, current Iran conflict fits pattern — Heardvine