Marketplace · Wednesday, September 30, 2026
The Federal Reserve believes the US labor market is operating at full employment, with an unemployment rate around 4.1%. However, analysts note a lack of 'churn,' indicating that fewer people are leaving jobs for better opportunities and those unemployed are finding it harder to secure new positions. This suggests potential underlying issues despite the low unemployment rate.
“We believe that the unemployment rate is basically running consistent with full employment, largely acting consistent with full employment.”
“But then I think the fact that we're not seeing the churn means that there's sort of warning signs under the hood.”
“Churn. People aren't leaving their jobs for better opportunities. And those who are without a job are having a harder time finding one.”