Everything Everywhere Daily · Wednesday, September 23, 2026
Despite evidence suggesting the New Madrid fault system's slow movement (0.2 mm/year), the U.S. Geological Survey maintains that a major earthquake is still possible. Scientists note that small earthquakes continue to occur, and historical data indicates a recurring risk.
“The U.S. Geological Survey issued a paper in 2009, stating that there is a 7 to 10% chance of an earthquake comparable to the 1811 and 1812 earthquakes occurring in the next 50 years.”
“And a 25 to 40% chance of a magnitude 6.0 earthquake.”
“The U.S. Geological Survey and the scientific consensus remains that a major earthquake is still possible.”