Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, September 23, 2026
Matt Lozetti observes that the labor market has stabilized and may be entering a phase of more meaningful tightening, with job gains exceeding the rate needed to maintain unemployment. He notes early signs of wage growth picking up and questions whether this stabilization will lead to re-acceleration.
“The clear slowdown that took place last year, that had motivated the Fed to go through another cycle of rate cuts. But since then, I think there's been a clear bottoming. There's been a stabilization that's happened in the labor market. And we are potentially entering a phase where the labor market is tightening more meaningfully.”
“We have job gains that are above the break-even rate that is needed to keep the unemployment rate steady.”
“So now I think the question is, are we simply stabilizing here where we are? Or is there a reacceleration that could take place?”