Bloomberg Surveillance · Tuesday, June 30, 2026
An analyst suggests the market is overly optimistic about the speed of oil supply recovery and underestimates demand rebound, particularly from China. While acknowledging a recent surge in prompt supply due to factors like Iranian crude waivers and SPR releases, she predicts prices will hover around $70-$80 Brent by year-end, not falling dramatically into the $60s next year.
“So in terms of the comment of what I'm making is essentially we are effectively pricing in all of this supply coming back to the market in a very even and measured way, and that demand, which has been impacted due to this conflict does not come back Right So that's what's being priced right now, And to me, that's just a little bit overly optimistic on how quickly the supply is going to come back.”
“China has already said they're going to roll back some of their product export bands immediately. That is going to pull forward a little bit more crude demand. And I think that we're overestimating the downside, just as we had overestimated the upside at the height of the conflict.”
“So not thinking that we see this dramatic sixties fifties crude scenario next year, which I know some analysts are pointing to, I tend to think we hover around this kind of seventy seventy five level.”