Bloomberg Surveillance · Saturday, September 26, 2026
Jeffrey Rosenberg argues that the rise in global bond yields is primarily driven by increasing nominal GDP forecasts, not solely by the fiscal problems of individual countries. Globally, nominal GDP growth has increased, directly correlating with the rise in bond rates, indicating a market reaction to economic activity rather than a 'freak out'.
“Globally, what we've seen is an increase this year in nominal GDP forecasts. My friend, colleague, and mentor Tom Parker points this out, and we'll be writing about this shortly. If you look at global average and GDP, nominal GDP, so what does that mean? It means take the real rate of activity and add the rate of inflation. That's basically like current price level of economic growth. What were the changes this year globally on average? An increase of about 50 basis points, half a percentage point relative to forecasts at the beginning of the year. That matches almost exactly the average global bond increase.”
“So global bond rates, they track nominal activity. So this isn't the bond market freaking out. This is the bond market recognizing. That, hey, growth is higher in nominal terms.”