The Twenty Minute VC (20VC) · Saturday, September 26, 2026
Pagg Agrawal predicts a dual trend in AI models: frontier models will continue to grow larger, while smaller models will achieve fixed performance levels more efficiently over time. He notes that the gap between the value frontier models can provide in specific use cases will drive their continued development, with no apparent end to scaling laws.
“I think we're gonna see two things. We're gonna see the biggest or the frontier models be bigger and bigger over time. We are also going to see smaller and smaller models being able to reach any fixed level of performance.”
“The reason the frontier will get bigger and bigger is ultimately the gap between the value for certain use cases, incrementality quality can provide you is going to be so high in certain use cases, which can be so valuable.”
“It appears there is no end to the scaling law that we can perceive so far.”