Excess Returns · Saturday, September 26, 2026
Eric Jackman suggests that investors should focus on long-term trends in the labor market rather than relying on month-to-month changes in the jobs report. He argues that the current methodology for reporting monthly changes introduces significant error, making it less reliable.
“So anyway, all that saying, if you were up to me, I wouldn't look at this data on a month to month basis. I would look at long-term trends.”
“But, you know, if people are going to look at it, which I know they're going to, I know we have a lot of investors on this call. Then you may as well have a tool that can help you understand where could the errors be in this data? Or which data should I trust and which should I not trust?”