The David Lin Report · Saturday, September 19, 2026
The market is now pricing in an 80% chance of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate hike next week, a significant jump from 60% the previous day. This shift is attributed to hawkish signals from Fed officials like Kevin Walsh and Chris Waller, who indicated that the CPI report would heavily influence their decision. The market's interpretation is that the Fed is leaning on market signals rather than detailed inflation nuances.
“Traders are predicting that there's an 80% chance of a 25 basis point hike next week. The search dramatically from 60% just yesterday, now to 80%.”
“Unfortunately for the Fed, uh, it, there's now not much room to maneuver to consider these nuances.”
“Kevin Walsh said that he is reducing forward guidance rather he wants to lean on the market signals, the unfiltered market signal to shape economic reality.”