Bloomberg Surveillance · Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Stephen Major states that despite geopolitical events and sanctions, the US dollar remains structurally strong, with dollar transactions and trade still predominantly going through the dollar. He anticipates a potential cyclical weakening in the second half of the year but expects the dollar to hold up well overall, with a gradual decline in yields.
“Maybe the oil price could be denominated in other currencies that then the dollar, But in fact I look at it and the data says dollar transactions are still strong. The majority of trade and transactions in security still goes through the dollar.”
“So the dollar movement is at the moment quite cyclical and structurally strong. I would say that we might lose some of the cyclical support for the dollar in the second half, but the structural foundations isn't still very much in place.”
“But I don't think I don't think there'll be a big move in the dollar. I think that you'll see a gradual decline in yields, But the dollars holding up pretty well.”