Bloomberg Surveillance · Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Stephen Major, global macro advisor, argues that markets believe in disinflation, driven by falling energy prices. He notes that while some interpret rising nominal and real yields as signs of strong economic growth, the data suggests otherwise, and the market is actually positioned against the consensus view of persistent high inflation.
“Well, it looks from the basis of the break evens that there is the markets belief in disinflation, and clearly that's coming from the shop drop in an energy prices or at least from the oil price first of all.”
“So that is disinflationary and it goes against the mainstream consensus view that was.”
“Now, I think that that's why it's so powerful for markets, Tom, because everyone was positioned for higher inflation and higher inflation risk premium, but you just don't see it happening that the market is going the other way.”