Excess Returns · Friday, September 18, 2026
David Rosenberg suggests that the market has priced in nearly two rate hikes by the end of the year, a move he describes as manic. He believes that if the Fed's dot plots do not significantly change, it indicates that market expectations for further rate hikes might be excessive.
“Uh, and what are the markets done? The markets have gone, they've basically discounted almost two rate hikes by the end of this year.”
“So, um, the markets have gone completely manic, and the pendulum has swung wildly where you did have, uh, the Fed dot plot at one rate cut back in March, and the market back then thought they might cut twice.”
“So, uh, yeah, I think that, you know, there's too much priced in.”