Excess Returns · Friday, September 18, 2026
David Rosenberg disputes the prevailing inflation narrative, arguing that it's primarily driven by oil prices, which are an exogenous factor. He points to deflating rents and negative year-over-year new home price growth as evidence against sustainable inflation, also noting decelerating wage trends and a lack of monetary inflation.
“Uh, yeah, I think that, you know, it's it's it's a supply shock.”
“So, uh, yeah, I think that, you know, it's it's it's a supply shock. Uh, it's when there's never supply shock when the labor market is heating up.”
“So, uh, yeah, I think that, you know, it's it's it's a supply shock. Uh, it's when there's never supply shock when the labor market is heating up. Uh, like it was in 2021, 2022, uh, when people were getting paid not to work, uh, because of those extended and generous, uh, job benefits programs coming out of COVID. This time around, uh, wage trends are decelerating, uh, accelerating. So, when you get this sort of price shock into a decelerating wage, and we're going to have a contraction and real incomes that gets translated with a lag into a decline in real consumer spending, which I think will be the primary theme going into the end of this year and into 2027.”