Excess Returns · Friday, September 18, 2026
David Rosenberg believes the current market conditions, even before the FOMC meeting, present a strong opportunity to enter the treasury market, which he describes as beaten down and maligned. He notes the market's pricing in of potential rate hikes, which contrasts with earlier projections and suggests a potential for a bull steepener in the treasury curve.
“Well, this is where I think that we could probably get, um, a very nice re-entry point into the, uh, beaten down and maligned and tested, uh, treasury market.”
“So, it's going to be interesting to see what the dot plots are going to do today. The dot plots actually, counterintuitively maybe or ironically, maybe more importantly now because Kevin Morse does not like to give guidance like his predecessors did.”
“So, um, the markets have gone completely manic, and the pendulum has swung wildly where you did have, uh, the Fed dot plot at one rate cut back in March, and the market back then thought they might cut twice.”