Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, September 16, 2026
Analysis suggests three main categories driving inflation above trend: the Rand War (geopolitics), the chip shortage, and tariffs. While tariffs are expected to roll off, the chip shortage is considered a persistent issue impacting inflation.
“It's been The Rand War, which you talked about in terms of geopolitics driving yields higher. It's been the chip shortage, which I would argue is the most important one to keep an eye on because that's something that hasn't gone away. And then the combination of the tariffs that have went into place.”
“Those are going to be very much rolling off, right? So when we're thinking about what's the inflation and the percentage of inflation categories that are going to be above 3% in a couple months' time, when we forecast that out, those metrics are going to look a lot lower in a couple months' time.”