Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart · Thursday, September 17, 2026
Tom McClellan explains the presidential cycle theory, noting that the first two years of a presidential term are typically sideways, followed by a strong third year. He observes that the current market is exhibiting an unusually upward version of sideways movement in the early part of the cycle.
“This is a strong market. Uh, we are in the first two years of a presidential term, which you're supposed to be sideways, and the market's doing a very, very upward version of sideways.”
“And so, uh, if you want an explanation for why that is, I would say that we are not taxing Americans to the hilt, and we're leaving more money in the economy as opposed to in the government's coffers.”
“So we're about to head into year three, which is a wonderful time for the stock market. In fact, it's nearly always up.”