Bloomberg Surveillance · Thursday, September 17, 2026
Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research has reduced his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400, citing increased geopolitical developments, specifically the escalation of the war in the Middle East, and higher-for-longer oil prices. He also expresses concern over the bond market and the unwinding of the carry trade in Japan.
“Geopolitical developments have deteriorated. The war in the Middle East has escalated, and we're looking at higher for longer oil prices, and higher for longer oil prices increase the odds that some of that inflationary pressures from energy will spill over into core prices.”
“And then in turn, we have not a one and done situation here with the Fed. We've got a situation where we're likely to have another one or two increases this year.”
“And the bond market's concerning. My friends, the bond vigilantes, have kind of gone wild all around the world. And I'm particularly concerned about the unwinding of the carry trade in Japan.”