Prof G Markets · Thursday, September 17, 2026
Robert Armstrong pointed out an anomaly in the Federal Reserve's dot plot, where two members indicated a potential rate cut by the end of the year, despite voting for a hike. This detail raises questions about the committee's forward guidance and internal consensus.
“In the notorious dot plot, which is this graphic they include, which shows for this year and several coming years, what each member of the committee believes is the appropriate monetary policy. There were two dots that showed that the appropriate monetary policy for the end of this year is the rate that we were at before the rate hike.”
“So what are those two people thinking? We voted with you to raise the rate today, but we think we're going to cut by the end of the year?”
“So that was like this weird, like, what are we doing? Maybe that's a good argument to go with Walsh and dismiss the dot plot altogether, get rid of the thing.”