Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, September 16, 2026
The Federal Reserve's latest projections indicate that inflation, measured by PCE headline, is expected to be 3.7% this year and 2.3% next year, with the 2% target not anticipated to be met until 2029. Core PCE is forecast at 3.4% for 2026 and 2.5% for 2027.
“Inflation, though, according to the statement, remains elevated. The median outlook is seen higher this year. PCE headline at 3.7%, up from 3.6% in June. Next year, it falls to 2.3%. Achieving the 2% target gets pushed out, as usual, two years to 2029 now. Core PCE will be 3.4% at the end of 2026, up a tenth. Next year, it's 2.5% unchanged.”
“Well, one of the interesting things is they say that this move will result in a timelier move to the 2% target, and yet they push the 2% target out another two years, as they almost always do with these summaries of economic projections, to 2029.”
“Core PCE will be 3.4% at the end of 2026, up a tenth. Next year, it's 2.5% unchanged.”