Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, September 16, 2026
David Rosenberg argues that true monetary inflation is not evident, citing that money velocity has peaked and is rolling over, while M2 growth is modest. He points to declining new home prices, moderating rental rates, and significantly lower labor cost growth year-over-year as indicators of disinflation. Rosenberg believes that sustained inflation is unlikely without these underlying disinflationary trends in monetary, housing, and labor markets.
“Are we seeing monetary inflation, M2, just over 5%, But money velocity peaked in March and is rolling over? I'm not saying true monetary inflation.”
“What about the housing market, right? New home prices are down 1% year over year. Rental rates nationwide are still declining, albeit moderately. There's no inflation out of the housing market.”
“And what about the labor market? Where is the inflation in the labor market? When labor costs are running at 1.4% year over year, this time last year they were 2%.”
“In fact, you're seeing disinflation in those three principal areas of the economy.”