Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, September 16, 2026
David Rosenberg notes confusion surrounding inflation trends, particularly concerning comments from former Fed official Kevin Warsh. Rosenberg points out that Warsh's preferred inflation measure (Dallas Fed trim mean) is running at 2.3%, which is lower than a year ago, yet Warsh has expressed concern about the underlying inflation trend not moving down. Rosenberg believes this injects confusion into the market, especially given upcoming revisions to PC deflator data.
“But he went on record as saying before he turned hawkish that his favorite inflation indicator, although he doesn't really trust any of them, is running at 2.3%. And this time last year, it's running at 2.7%. And yet then at Jackson Hole, he laments the fact that the underlying inflation trend isn't moving down. Meanwhile, it's 40 basis points lower than it was this time last year? So it's just, I think, injected a lot of confusion as far as I'm concerned.”
“And my sense is how much will the trend be revised down? That's why I'm so surprised that Kevin Warsh started sounding so hawkish in light of the fact that September 30th is a very important date in terms of what this newly revised deflator data are going to show.”