Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, September 16, 2026
Jay Goldberg of Seaport Research Partners describes the current semiconductor upswing as the strongest cycle witnessed by the industry. While acknowledging some potential structural changes that might reduce future cyclicality, he remains cautious about whether this time is different. He also expresses a 'sell' or 'underperform' rating on NVIDIA, citing its large size, high expectations, and sold-out production as factors that will make it difficult for the stock to outperform.
“Semiconductors are still cyclical. They go up and they go down. This time it may be a while before it goes down again. I think this is the strongest semiconductor upswing cycle any of us have ever seen.”
“And I think there are some people who think that maybe this time is different. There are some signs that there are some structural changes in the industry that will even out the cyclicality in the future. I'm not quite there yet, but I can see their reasoning.”
“I think it's just going to underperform the rest of the semis, the rest of the AI complex. And And that's just, I think, partly a function of it's gotten very big and so it's harder and harder for it to move the needle. Expectations are always very high and it's increasingly hard to beat them.”