Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, September 16, 2026
Alicia Levine from BNY believes the economy is returning to a pre-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) environment, characterized by higher inflation, rates, and a more industrial economy. She notes that current market conditions, including high oil prices, 5% 10-year yields, and strong equity performance, would have been unbelievable just months ago. Levine suggests that AI's impact on GDP is significant, partly due to high import costs for components like chips.
“Look, we're going back to a pre-GFC world? It's clear, you know, on inflation, on rates, on, you know, more industrial economy, less of a financialization of the economy.”
“COVID really was the break in what we had before. And we're going back to what we all grew up with.”
“So it definitely drives GDP because it's about one-third to one-half of U.S. GDP this year because the imports are so high for AI. The imports are taking away from top-line GDP because you have to subtract it. Think of the chips we're importing from Korea and Taiwan.”