Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, September 16, 2026
Stephen Major, Global Macro Advisor at Tradition, anticipates that 10-year Treasury yields will trend lower, closer to 4% than 6% within a year. He believes the market narrative has become overly bearish on bonds, overlooking the fact that term premiums have not significantly increased. Major suggests that inflation expectations are under control and that recent market movements are primarily pricing in rate hikes.
“I'd say nearer to four than six.”
“So I think a lot of the narrative out there has got very bearish on bonds and it tends to talk about fiscal policy in the same breath as being bearish and about the supply of bonds and all of the inflation risk premium and what have you. I just don't really see it.”
“The term premium hasn't gone up. People have been claiming that it has. It has not gone up.”