Excess Returns · Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Ian Cassel and Matt discuss the influence of personal circumstances and historical data, or 'base rates,' on investment decisions. Cassel argues that investors often prioritize unique stories over crucial historical data, and that base rates offer a vital framework for decision-making.
“You know, so, you know, I am completely open-minded to the fact that, you know, I kind of started my investing career, you know, during the .com bubble.”
“And I think the importance of base rates is that, you know, they provide us with a, a framework for making decisions.”
“And, you know, I think that's something that's really missing in the investing world.”