BiggerPockets Money Podcast · Tuesday, September 15, 2026
Professor Aswath Damodaran characterizes the current AI investment landscape as the largest "leap into the unknown" in history, with a massive build-out of infrastructure lacking a clear understanding of future product and service revenues. He uses a 'three P test' (Possible, Plausible, Probable) to evaluate the feasibility of AI generating the necessary revenue, currently deeming it only 'possible' with low probability.
“But we've also built the largest factory in history without a sense of what that factory will produce as products and services and whether people will pay for them. It's it's a largest leap into the unknown as well that we've made in history.”
“Is it possible? Is it plausible? Is it probable? Right now it's possible. You can have a 10 trillion dollar revenue. I'll tell I'll explain why that possibility exists. Is it plausible? Is it probably pushing the limits of what's plausible. And is it probable? Right now I'd attach a low probability to it.”