The a16z Show · Monday, September 14, 2026
Greg Brockman recounted that 10 years prior, he and Ilya Sutskever estimated AGI to be 10-15 years away based on compute and Moore's Law. He noted that current advancements align with their more optimistic 10-year projection, possibly due to massive investments in supercomputers.
“Well, so Ilya and I actually spent a lot of time trying to predict what it would look like. What the timelines would be. And I remember we did some math on compute in around 2016, 2017. And we kind of came to the conclusion that if you look at Moore's Law progress, that kind of thing, 15 years felt like about the timeline to AGI.”
“And if you really squinted at it and you're willing to scale up and build massive supercomputers, spend hundreds of billions of dollars, that kind of thing, that maybe it would be 10.”