Excess Returns · Monday, September 14, 2026
Jim Paulsen discusses the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, stating that the market is pricing in an 80% chance of a rate hike, but he personally views it as a 50/50 probability. He believes Fed Chair Powell might feel compelled to hike to signal continued focus on inflation, despite potential split opinions within the Fed.
“And, you know, I think the, I think the odds as of yesterday were something like 80% they're gonna hike. So, do you expect that's what we're gonna see?”
“I think it's 50/50, but heck if I know. I think, I think they sure sound like they're going to raise it. The markets have priced it in. I think it's in there. Um, to some degree.”
“I really suspect that Warsh doesn't want to. Uh, the new Fed chairman, but he feels a little pinned back, maybe to show some that he's still focused on inflation.”