Excess Returns · Monday, September 14, 2026
Jim Paulsen notes the increase in energy prices and the rise in the ten-year bond yield to 5%, with the two-year yield suggesting the Fed has already raised rates. He argues that these factors, along with an inverted yield curve, indicate very negative policy forces at play.
“And, you know, we're, it's kind of disappointing that in that regard, that, you know, we've respked energy prices back up almost to previous highs. And we're now taking the ten year bond yield to five and the two years running like the Fed's already raised rates.”
“The yield curve is almost back down to its flattest position of the year after coming off a lot from last year. I mean, policy force is very negative.”