Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, August 26, 2026
Vishal Kanduja of Morgan Stanley predicts that the 10-year Treasury yield might spike to 5%, but sees 4.75% as a significant threshold. He attributes this outlook to clear, broad-based disinflationary pressures, despite some delay due to economic factors like nominal growth and corporate CapEx spending.
“So four and three quarters, I think we might spike to five on the 10-year.”
“Is a pretty fantastic threshold here. And why we say that is because of the fundamental reasons. We do see very clear-cut, broad-based disinflationary pressures.”
“Got a little bit delayed because of the conflict, because of the nominal growth picking up, because of the capex spend that you're seeing from the corporates.”