Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart · Wednesday, August 26, 2026
Economist Dr. Art Laffer attributes the recent material decrease in US GDP growth rates to changes in immigration policy. He argues that a shift from 3.5 million annual immigrants to an out-migration of 1 million has resulted in a significant swing in population and labor force growth, thereby impacting GDP.
“Uh, prior to President Trump's coming back into office, and it took him a while to really set it up. Uh, we were having immigration levels in the range of about 3.5 million per year coming in. Uh, since he's taken office and control of the border, we now have out-migration of about 1 million a year.”
“Now, that is a swing of 3.5 to minus 1 million. So that's a 4.5 million swing in population growth in there. If you make the wildest assumption, probably a pretty reasonable. That half of those people are in the labor force or work. Uh, what that means is there is a 2.5 million swing in the growth in the labor force per year.”
“That would greatly impact GDP. That will greatly impact the labor force numbers and all of that. Not because it's a lack of productivity, not because it's not a good economy. It's just because we have a different growth rate in labor.”