Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, August 26, 2026
The conversation highlights that while oil prices and tariffs have influenced inflation, the impact of AI-related costs on inflation is still unfolding and potentially problematic. While AI has influenced computer and accessory prices, there may be other AI-related cost pressures yet to appear in the data. Two other significant factors contributing to inflation this year, the Iran war (affecting oil) and tariffs, are expected to move into disinflationary territory.
“So when we think about the reasons as to why core inflation has been elevated this year, I would say it's three things. It's been the Iran war, which at this point, we're kind of seeing a bouncing around in oil, but kind of somewhat stable at this point.”
“It's been tariffs, which are going to be rolling off the data. And you're, in fact, you're starting to see some companies come out and say they're using some tariff refunds to offset some prices.”
“So I think by far the biggest thing we should be watching is on the AI-related inflation because that's a piece that hasn't fully worked its way through the data at this point.”