Excess Returns · Thursday, September 10, 2026
Mike Contopilis draws a parallel between current cyclical forces and the 1960s 'guns and butter' era, citing increased global defense spending and fiscal initiatives like the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act. He argues these factors, combined with low unemployment and accelerating money velocity, put upward pressure on interest rates.
“The cyclical forces in our view is that you've kind of got a Redux of the guns and butter era of the 1960s.”
“That the guns being everything that's going on throughout the world with Ukraine, Iran, everywhere.”
“And that's coupled with, you know, maybe not, you know, spending on social programs, but the one big beautiful bill, the chips act, the inflation reduction act. Still adding stimulus to the economy.”