Excess Returns · Thursday, September 10, 2026
Mike Contopilis believes the market is shifting towards a secular environment of inflationary pressures, driven by deglobalization, labor market changes, and a lack of productive capacity. This contrasts with the disinflationary era of the past 40 years.
“We think there's been a change. We think there's been a secular change that started in 2015. Uh, started with Brexit and the election of President Trump where you started to move from a world of globalization to one of deglobalization.”
“And so we think what you're moving towards is a secular environment of inflation, inflationary pressures.”
“But that one to two extra percent of inflation has meaningful consequences to monetary policy and interest rates.”