Behind the Markets Podcast · Friday, September 11, 2026
The market is pricing in a high probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, with futures markets indicating around a 90% chance. This decision is seen as crucial for Fed Chair Walsh's credibility, especially with potential backlash from the President. The speaker suggests that a rate hike might actually lead to a decrease in long-term rates as the Fed demonstrates its commitment to fighting inflation.
“Um, and, uh, uh, you know, I, uh, the probabilities on, uh, the futures market have gone up just, uh, now to around 90%.”
“Um, uh, but but clearly the market is saying it's time to raise rates.”
“So I think the credibility of the Fed is important. We may actually see the long rate go down on a raise because, you know, they, uh, uh, showing that they're really going to fight that inflationary, uh, surge.”