Bloomberg Surveillance · Friday, September 11, 2026
David Kelly of JPMorgan Asset Management believes the August CPI report is one of the most important inflation prints in years. He suggests that if the report comes in lower than consensus, the Federal Reserve may hold rates, while a higher print could lead to a rate hike. Kelly argues against tightening policy solely due to oil prices, stating it doesn't translate to broad-based inflation due to stagnant wage growth for most Americans.
“the August CPI report is shaping up to be one of the most important inflation prints in years.”
“I mean, if we come in a full tenth lower than consensus on headline and core, if that happens, then I think the Fed is on hold. If we come in at consensus, it's a jump ball. And then if we come in high, of course, they will raise rates. I don't think they should.”
“The Federal Reserve can only affect what's going on within the economy, and they shouldn't tighten because of oil and disinflation.”