Excess Returns · Tuesday, September 8, 2026
Jared Dillian argues that while investing all savings in the S&P 500 index fund has worked for the past 20 years, it's a fundamentally flawed strategy due to excessive volatility. He suggests this approach is akin to being a 'crazy gambler' and that Americans' reliance on stocks is unusual compared to other global markets.
“For the last 20 years. Like, it has absolutely worked. People need things to be simple. They have a desire for simplicity. And if you give them very simple instructions, if you say, put all your money in the S&P 500, dollar cost average it, hold it forever, that's very easy for people to understand, right? And they've done that for the last 20 years, and the results have been fantastic.”
“Um, but it's wrong. And the reason it's wrong is, um, maybe I'm just more conservative, but I don't want to trust my entire life savings to the stock market.”
“Like, we are crazy gamblers. We take huge amounts of risk.”