Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, September 9, 2026
Mike Ferroli of J.P. Morgan anticipates the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in September, contingent on Friday's CPI report. He forecasts core CPI at 0.21% month-over-month, believing this will be insufficient to trigger a rate hike, though a higher print could alter their call.
“whether the Fed hikes in September boils down to Friday's CPI report. We forecast core CPI of 0.21% month over month, which we think leaves the Fed on hold.”
“I think if it's 0.29, we'll probably change our call and look for a hike next week.”
“Now, I think it's also going to be very important what we get on that PPI report on Thursday because how we put that together with the CPI to get the PCE number, which is what they're really focused on, is going to be really important.”