Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, September 9, 2026
Seema Shah believes that current Treasury yields, even at 4.80% for the 10-year, are not an immediate headwind for equity markets. She argues that as long as rising yields are driven by strong economic growth and solid corporate earnings, equities can absorb this. However, she notes that sustained higher rates, potentially around the 5% level, or sharp, rapid increases in yields could become a concern.
“I think actually, to my mind, this is probably the biggest question which people are grappling with. Now, typically, you would see that treasury yields, they cross like the 475 mark and everyone starts to really worry. But when you've got a lot of that movement being driven by strong growth, again, the fundamentals playing through again, then we actually think that equities can get over that hurdle, right? The earnings are still there in order to propel equities forward.”
“At what point it really does become an issue for equities? I think it's a little bit higher certainly than what it was before because of that strong growth backdrop. It may be that we need to get the 5% level, but ultimately what really matters is one, is why are yields rising? Is it down to growth or is it concerns around inflation? And secondly, what is the speed at which it's moving? We've always seen that when you get a very, very sharp sell off, that's when equities start to struggle.”
“But at this point in time with treasuries at 480, to us, this isn't a real concern for equity markets. It just means that maybe the speed limit is a little bit lower for equities for the rest.”