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Odd Lots · Monday, July 6, 2026

Prediction Markets' Resolution Process: Waiting for the 'Ninety Nine to One Hundred' vs. Strategic Exit

Traders discussed their strategies regarding market resolution, weighing whether to hold a position until the final payout or sell near 99% to reinvest elsewhere. The decision depends on the timeframe to resolution and the availability of other profitable opportunities, with a preference for avoiding markets prone to disputes or ambiguous outcomes.

personBrian GoldenpersonDaniel ReichmancompanyPolymarketcompanyCalshi

The tape

2 quotes
I think it depends how much time it is and what other plays are available. I mean, usually you know, if if a market is going to resolve in the next forty eight hours, I mean, you're pretty much always going to hold that from ninety nine to one hundred. But there are certainly elections that the answer is clear, and then you know you're not getting that payout for a month. And I mean usually I can turn ninety nine cents into a dollar over a month faster doing something else than waiting.
Brian Golden
It's really important to know the difference between is your market ninety eight or ninety nine just because of the time it's going to take to resolve, or is there a one or two percent chance of it actually going the other way. I try really hard to avoid these rules disputes and these you know, thorny markets where it ends up kind of a debate.
Daniel Reichman
Heard on Odd Lots — “These Are the Sharps Actually Making Money on Prediction Markets, published Monday, July 6, 2026. Heardvine summarizes and quotes with attribution and timestamps, and links to the original everywhere.
Transcribed via publisher transcript · $0.00
Prediction Markets' Resolution Process: Waiting for the 'Ninety Nine to One Hundred' vs. Strategic Exit — Heardvine