Bloomberg Surveillance · Saturday, August 29, 2026
While switching jobs still offers a pay bump, the premium has significantly narrowed, with some industries, like retail and hospitality, seeing negative earnings growth from job changes. Research indicates that 47% of Americans have experienced real wage declines over the past four years due to inflation, contributing to dismal consumer sentiment.
“Yes, it does still produce a pay bump, but the premium. for that pay bump has narrowed significantly.”
“If you're in retail or leisure and hospitality, the restaurant business that we were just talking about, you'll actually see negative earnings for the typical worker, negative growth. from switching jobs because that is an industry that rewards loyalty and service over fast switching.”
“47% of Americans, according to our research, saw real wage declines over the last four years because of inflation. So this is why consumer sentiment is dismal.”