The David Lin Report · Saturday, August 29, 2026
According to data from the prediction market platform Kaji, traders are placing a low probability on a Federal Reserve rate hike occurring before 2027. Specifically, there is a 16.9% chance of a hike before 2027 and a 77% chance before July 2027.
“And, uh, traders are predicting that there is a 16 9% chance that it will happen before 2027.”
“And a 77% chance that it will happen before July 2027.”
“If you believe that the Fed is going to hike before the new year in 2027, then a $50 trade on that particular outcome could yield a payoff of $70 if you turned out to be right.”