Bloomberg Surveillance · Monday, July 6, 2026
Mike Wilson anticipates a correction in semiconductor stocks and a stabilization in hyperscaler stocks, driven by a peaking capex-to-sales ratio and potential shifts in corporate spending. He notes that the divergence between spender and beneficiary stocks in tech is unsustainable, with Meta's potential sale of excess capacity signaling a potential shift. Wilson believes this correction could last several weeks but does not signify the end of the broader capex cycle.
“And so that capex the sales factor has been driving a lot of stocks higher.”
“That looks like it's peaking now.”
“And by the way, the hyperscaler stocks started to trade poorly about a month and a half ago and into this idea. But that's not sustainable, You can't have the spender stocks trading poorly and the beneficiary stocks continuing to go straight up.”
“And then of course the hyperscalers will benefit if the market perceives these companies as being somewhat capex disciplined, that they're not going to do willy nilly spending in a way where free cash.”